Protest and paralysis in Nepal

By Bhagirath Yogi
BBC Nepali service

Nepal is in the midst of a long and bitter political stalemate.

Police charge anti-monarchy protesters in Kathmandu

The impasse dates back to October 2002, when King Gyanendra dismissed a popularly elected government and assumed executive powers himself.

As political parties continue to agitate in the hope of forcing the king to "correct" what they call his "anti-constitutional" move, Maoist rebels say they are preparing for a final push in their eight-year-old fight against the monarchy.

Nobody seems to be gaining substantial political ground, while the armed conflict and political row increases popular disenchantment and costs the economy dear.

Why has the stalemate continued for so long and is a breakthrough likely?

Anti-monarchy protests

Activists and students continue to clash regularly with the police.

They demand either the full restoration of 2002's dissolved parliament - or the formation of an all-party government which will try to bring the Maoist rebels back to the negotiating table and oversee fresh elections.

Protesters have accused security forces of heavy-handedness

King Gyanendra has, so far, ignored these demands.

Instead, he has appointed two prime ministers from the royalist Rastriya Prajatantra Party to lead the government, while blaming other politicians for the country's ills.

One striking fall-out from this policy can be seen in the student activists who have been chanting anti-monarchy slogans in Kathmandu's streets for the past few weeks - a few hundred metres away from the royal residence, the Narayanhiti palace.

Until a few years ago, such a scenario could scarcely have been imagined in a country where many still regard the king as an incarnation of the Hindu god, Vishnu.

Constitution in limbo

Maoist rebels - who say they are fighting to abolish the monarchy and turn Nepal into a communist republic - have also been quick to capitalise on the political deadlock.

Crowning glory: Many see the king as an incarnation of the god, Vishnu

The Maoist supremo, Comrade Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal, has expressed solidarity with the student movement.

Meanwhile, his deputy, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, has dismissed hopes of a compromise, saying the rebels will now settle for nothing less than a republican state.

King Gyanendra seems to see himself in a position of strength.

In an interview with Time magazine - his first to any foreign media - the monarch said: "The reality is the people of Nepal want to see their king, they want to hear from him. The days of royalty being seen and not heard are over."

The king declared that neither the mainstream political parties nor the Maoists were addressing the concerns of the people at large.

Strangely enough, it is the die-hard monarchists who are preparing the stage for the rise of republicanism CK Lal, political commentator

Analysts say this has brought the king into direct competition with the political parties and may even show he wants a more direct role in the country's affairs.

The current Nepalese constitution, drawn up in 1990, for the first time made the Nepalese people sovereign and limited the king's role to that of a constitutional monarch.

But the constitution has been in limbo ever since the royal move of October 2002.

Unity first

The king enjoys absolute support from the Royal Nepalese Army, whose strength has risen from 50,000 to around 70,000 in the last two years.

He also enjoys the backing of a large section of the population and some members of the international community.

India, the USA and UK have provided support to the Nepalese government to fight the Maoist insurgency, which has claimed over 8,000 lives in the last eight years.

Economic burden: Porters cut a lonely figure on strike day

But analysts say a military solution to the Maoist insurgency is not possible because of Nepal's geo-political situation.

This means that the political forces who are not opposed to the present constitution - the king and the political parties - must come together first.

Only then can they invite or force the Maoists to negotiate a settlement.

But instead, the three forces - the King, parliamentary parties and Maoists - continue to drift apart, leaving the country's economy in tatters and increasing the suffering of the people.

Royal initiative

Nobody seems to be in a situation to forecast how long this situation will continue.

"Political predictions are like weather forecasts," wrote CK Lal, a well-known political commentator. "Strangely enough, it is the die-hard monarchists who are preparing the stage for the rise of republicanism."

Even international pressure to persuade the king and the political parties to work together does not seem to be paying off.

Most analysts, however, agree that the next initiative to ease the deadlock must come from the monarch.

As students started chanting slogans against the crown last month, King Gyanendra invited leaders of major political parties separately for an audience.

But there has yet to be a breakthrough.

The wait for an end to Nepal's costly stalemate continues.