India's elections - who will learn the lessons?

By Mark Tully Writer and broadcaster on India

There are lessons for India's two major parties from this week's state elections. But will they learn them?

When Uma Bharati was chosen as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate to be the chief minister of the state of Madhya Pradesh, I thought the party had decided to make its controversial demand to promote a Hindu nationalist agenda (or Hindutva) as the main plank of its electoral campaign.

Victorious BJP supporters - but will they jettison their pro-Hindu agenda?

The celibate, saffron-clad Hindu holy woman had been one of the most vociferous and vigorous advocates of Hindutva, or "Hindu-ness".

She has been at the centre of controversy over the 1992 destruction of a mosque at Ayodhya that triggered nationwide religious rioting.

But at the start of her campaign she told me Hindutva was a matter of her personal faith.

She promised a campaign based on development - criticising the Congress record after 10 years in power in the state.

In particular, she criticised the state of roads in Madhya Pradesh and the lack of electricity.

Development was also the major issue raised by the BJP in the other three states that have voted.

The results show its importance. The Congress had ruled all four states that voted.

The only one they have managed to save is Delhi where the chief minister had established a reputation for good governance, with improvements to the roads, fewer electricity cuts, cleaner air and better schools.

In the other three states the BJP convinced the electorate that Congress and development don't go together.

Under pressure

So one lesson for the BJP is that Hindutva is not their trump card.

Mr Vajpayee knows only too well that state elections are not necessarily accurate indicators of the way India will vote in a general election

But the BJP Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, will still be under considerable pressure to play that card in the general election due to be held within ten months.

The foot soldiers of the BJP, the party workers who campaigned so hard in these elections, are recruited from organisations dedicated to the Hindutva cause. They will demand due respect next time round.

A BJP spokesman has already said that good governance is the lesson of this election - but that requires major reforms in India's decrepit administrative system bequeathed by the British.

So far no prime minister, including Mr Vajpayee, has had the courage to tackle the politicians' and bureaucrats' opposition to reform.

Stuck in a time warp

The lessons are starker for Congress, the party that dominated post-independence politics in India under the dynasty of the Nehru-Gandhi family.

Sonia Gandhi (centre) - her position is not under threat

Congress is clearly still stuck in a time warp.

It's not just that Indians are no longer prepared to vote blindly for the current representative of the Nehru-Gandhi family, Sonia Gandhi.

Congress's lacklustre campaign, which compared so unfavourably with the BJP's efficient and effective canvassing, showed that the autocratic style of the Nehru Gandhi family still prevents local politicians giving effective leadership.

They still have to refer far too many decisions to party headquarters.

During campaigning in Rajasthan I was told by a disgruntled local Congress man that most of the candidates in his district had been selected to suit the convenience of the son of one of the elderly advisers surrounding Sonia.

But the Congress party is only happy when it is under the absolute rule of a member of the Gandhi-Nehru family.

It seems incapable of understanding that a party, as well as a nation, needs to be democratic. That means that this dismal performance of Congress is no threat to Sonia. If she goes, it will be at a time of her choosing.

Early general election?

So will Prime Minister Vajpayee conclude from the BJP's success that the wind is in his favour and he should go for the big one and call an early general election?

Uma Bharati - the new BJP chief minister in Madhya Pradesh state

He seems in two minds.

The day before the count he told his MPs to prepare for the polls. Now he says that "Still one year is left" of his term in office.

Mr Vajpayee knows only too well that state elections are not necessarily accurate indicators of the way India will vote in a general election.

The BJP were humiliated in the last assembly elections in Rajasthan, but only a year later outdid the Congress in the general election.

What's more, the BJP still needs to find new allies in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous and politically important state, and in Bihar.

So these elections don't guarantee the BJP and its allies will return to power at the national level.

But they should guarantee that all parties acknowledge the lesson the electorate has taught them - that voters will not respond to appeals the politicians use to divert attention from their failure to govern well.

Appeals to religion, ideology or dynasty will not work.

Indians want good governance and the development that comes with it.