Al-Qaeda weakened

Al-Qaeda weakened

Analysis By Frank Gardner BBC security correspondent

The capture of Khaled Sheikh Mohammed, the 38-year old believed to be al-Qaeda's chief of operations, is a body blow to the organisation's fugitive leadership.

In many ways, he is more important - and more dangerous to the West - than Osama Bin Laden himself.

A $25m reward was offered for Sheikh Mohammed's capture

Unlike the al-Qaeda leader, Sheikh Mohammed is thought to have played an active personal role in planning and recruiting, in building up cells in South-East Asia and the Arab Gulf states.

Above all, he is thought to have remained active after 11 September 2001, plotting a fresh wave of attacks instead of just lying low.

On Sunday, the Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, Pat Roberts, trumpeted the arrest, saying : "This is a giant step backwards for the al-Qaeda. This must send a message to the al-Qaeda which was mounting a spring offensive in Afghanistan. Now their Operations Manager is simply out of operations."

Knowledge

In his head Khaled Sheikh Mohammed carries an encyclopaedic knowledge of every major al-Qaeda operation, past present and future.

This is a giant step backwards for the al-Qaeda. Now their Operations Manager is simply out of operations

Pat Roberts
Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee

Almost certainly, he also knows the whereabouts of a number of al-Qaeda leaders on the FBI's "most wanted" list.

Encouraging him to part with this information will now be an urgent priority for his US and Pakistani interrogators.

The interrogation will essentially focus on trying to find out the answers to three key questions:
• What plans does al-Qaeda have for any imminent attacks?

• Where are the other 20 or so most wanted members of al-Qaeda?

• How were al-Qaeda's previous operations carried out and where are the perpetrators?

The first two areas need immediate answers and here Khaled Sheikh Mohammed will need all his training in resistance to interrogation in order to hold out for a vital few hours.

The longer he can withhold information, the more chance that those associates whose locations he knows can get away or change their plans.

US officials have said they will not be applying torture, but given that Sheikh Mohammed will be hidden away out of public view his interrogation is likely to be robust.

More raids

Clearly, the Americans are delighted at his capture and US officials are hinting at more raids to follow soon.

Their success has enabled the Bush administration to answer criticism that that amidst all the talk of war in Iraq they are ignoring the threat from terrorism.

Bin Laden will feel the pressure

But it would be unwise for the West to celebrate for long.

Khaled Sheikh Mohammed, although undoubtedly important, was only one man in a murky, global organisation.

It will take time to replace him and al-Qaeda has certainly been damaged.

But as long as a small number of people are prepared to devote their lives to attacking the West - to defend, as they see it, their religion - the threat from al-Qaeda remains very real.