Pakistan's political future takes shape

Islamists had the clearest-cut message

By Susannah Price BBC correspondent in Islamabad

After three years of military rule Pakistanis are still being forced to wait to hear the final outcome of Thursday's elections for the national and provincial parliaments.

Once the parliament is in place, President Musharraf may find it difficult to control elected members who can say they have a mandate from the people of Pakistan

Opposition parties have criticised what they say is the inexplicable delay between the end of voting and the announcement of the first result which came several hours later.

But certain trends have clearly emerged. The biggest shock was the success of the alliance of religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e- Amal (MMA).

They probably had the clearest-cut message of any party during the campaign - against the American operations in Afghanistan and President Musharraf's support for the war on terror.

Breakthrough

This was particularly popular in the North West Frontier Province which borders Afghanistan - where the MMA will also dominate the provincial assembly. The alliance has also been able to capitalise on the country's power vacuum and the divided opposition.

Bhutto remains in self-imposed exile

The leader of one of the religious parties, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, called it a breakthrough. He said his party was a force for the future.

It had been predicted that the election would be a close fight between the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e Azam) - PML(Q) - which supports President Musharraf, and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

They are set to end up as the two parties with the most seats. However it is now clear that no party will be able to get a majority in parliament and whoever is looking to take power will need to build a coalition first.

A spokesman for the PML (Q) said their party would be quite comfortable working with the religious parties. But the PPP would find that difficult and is more interested in holding talks with another party led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

'Unfair advantage'

Although there have been no major complaints about the voting day itself - there were widespread allegations about pre-poll rigging which have been denied by the government.

Opposition parties said President Musharraf had used state machinery to help the PML (Q) while changing the election rules to ensure Benazir Bhutto could not stand in the polls.

The People's Party is seeking talks with Sharif's supporters

She remains in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai, saying she would like to return but that the country is at a sensitive stage.

Commonwealth election observers reported that while the actual voting was for the most part transparent - their particular concerns were about allegations of government influence to favour certain parties.

President Musharraf has said he will transfer power to the new prime minister at the beginning of next month. But questions remain over his future role. He has already given himself the power to dismiss parliament - and introduced a powerful national security council with a strong military element.

But once the parliament is in place, he may find it difficult to control elected members who can say they have a mandate from the people of Pakistan.