Kashmir braces itself for violence

Kashmiri elections have often been marred by violence

By Sanjoy Majumder BBC News Online correspondent in Srinagar

As Indian-administered Kashmir heads to the polls on Monday, the authorities and the people of the state are bracing themselves for any possible violence.

Recent elections to the Indian part of the disputed state have often been held under the shadow of the gun and this one promises to be no different.

Last week the state's law minister was shot dead in the border district of Kupwara, the second candidate to have been killed allegedly by militants who the authorities say are backed by Pakistan.

And on Sunday the state tourism minister, Sakina Itoo survived an attempt on her life.

Police attempt to keep order in the state

These are critical elections for India - a high turnout would help restore its credibility globally, after it has publicly stated that the elections will be free and fair.

A successful election will also throw up, however thin, a chance of pushing ahead with a fledgling peace process. Delhi has promised to hold talks with the state's elected representatives.

Armed attackers

Monday's voting takes place in some of the most sensitive parts of the state, with a history of violence.

Four of the five districts - a sixth, Leh, has already seen its two members elected unopposed - are close to the border with Pakistan.

They are particularly vulnerable to attacks by armed separatists who sneak across the heavily forested mountains from Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Police officials say they have huge numbers of personnel in place to prevent any violence but add that they cannot rule it out completely.

"A large number of foreign militants are in the countryside. It's possible that further attempts may be made to disrupt the polls," the state's top police official, AK Suri, said.

"I cannot promise 100% incident free elections."

Campaigning for these elections have been unusually enthusiastic, according to local observers, with rallies well attended.

But candidates and their campaign staff have been attacked, despite the heavy security around them.

Fear

Chaudhry Ramzan Ali is a minister in the Kashmir government. He is seeking re-election from Handwara, which is some 30 kilometres from the Line of Control, which separates Indian and Pakistani Kashmir.

Mr Ali is facing a keen challenge from a former separatist leader, Ghulam Mohi-ud-din Sofi, in a contest that is being closely watched.

Earlier this week, as he campaigned in a village in his constituency, he told BBC News Online that he expected violence during the vote.

Most people in Kashmir are critical of the elections

"They [the militants] do not want a successful vote. People here want to vote but are too scared.

"There only hope is if the security forces have a strong enough presence to give them the confidence to come out to vote.

Many local residents in Handwara agree with him, at least partially.

"People do want to cast their vote," says one shopkeeper. "Not because they support India but because they want to vote for change."

"We will certainly vote," says another. "And if there is a free and fair election, Mohi-ud-din Sofi will win."

I cannot promise 100% incident free elections

AK Suri

But there is a different kind of fear as well - apprehension that the security forces will coerce unwilling voters to come out and cast their ballot.

"They will come and drag us out on Monday," says one local resident, a government doctor.

"What choice do we have? We have to go along."

Lack of opposition

For their part the authorities reject any such suggestions.

"I can assure you that the security forces have no intention of coercing people to vote," says AK Suri.

Campaigners in a door to door campaign

Analysts say the key to the elections lies in the turnout. An improved showing from previous elections - that is anything above 30% - will come as a major boost to India.

It could also spell trouble for the governing National Conference, which is also one of the coalition partners in the federal government.

But a low turnout, and the absence of any serious opposition, means that the National Conference will probably scrape through.

The assassination of Law Minister Mushtaq Ahmad Lone could also have an effect.

"There was a real chance of a decent turnout, judging by the number of people who attended the campaign rallies," says local journalist Shujat Bhukari.

"Now, fear of violence will probably keep many away."