Mapping Afghanistan's political future

There is no obvious successor to the Taleban

By BBC diplomatic correspondent Barnaby Mason

The United States, the United Nations and other leading powers are working intensively to develop a political strategy for the future of Afghanistan.

If the Northern Alliance were to take over Kabul again as a result of American military action, the result could be a bloodbath and renewed civil war

If military strikes succeed in toppling the Taleban, many are saying there must be a broad-based government not dominated by particular ethnic groups to replace the hardline militia.

The job of bringing that about is going to be difficult.

The four days of air strikes so far are weakening the Taleban and have set in train what one senior British official called a dynamic process - political as well as military.

Not even the United States, he said, could determine exactly what was going to happen.

Vague strategy

That explains a certain vagueness about what the political strategy is.

The aim is clear enough: a broad-based Afghan government neither dominated - as the Taleban are - by the Pashtuns who make up about half the population, nor by the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.

Some fear a Northern Alliance takeover would only lead to further bloodshed

The difficulty lies in how to arrive at such an administration.

If the Northern Alliance were to take over Kabul again as a result of American military action, the result could be a bloodbath and renewed civil war.

Many western officials are now worrying that military events could outrun any political process.

That - combined with pressure from Pakistan - is probably why the US air force has not yet bombed Taleban defensive lines just north of Kabul.

British officials set out one hoped-for scenario: the Taleban would fragment, with the defection of Pashtun tribal leaders, but the Northern Alliance would not take over very much more territory than it holds now.

The United States and Pakistan are reported to be co-operating to identify likely Pashtun defectors.

Many are calling for the reinstatement of the exiled former king, Zahir Shah.

The former monarch has lasting appeal to many Pashtun tribesmen who live along both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border.

United Nations role

Whatever the different scenarios, the role of the UN is still under discussion.

Officials say the newly appointed special representative, Lakhdar Brahimi, would help put together a framework for a more stable government, to be approved perhaps by a loya jirga, a traditional Afghan assembly.

The UN could help put together a framework for a more stable government

Another part of his job is to encourage the regional powers to pull together rather than sponsoring rival factions.

One encouraging sign is that Afghanistan's six neighbours are beginning to say the same thing about the kind of government that is needed.

If so, there may be a constructive role for the existing diplomatic group of those six countries plus the United States and Russia.

British officials say it could be extended to include others, for example India and Japan.