Analysis: Pakistan's mixed feelings about Blair

Pakistani ministers welcomed Blair's speech

		By the BBC's Daniel Lak

British Prime Minister Tony Blair arrives in Islamabad as Pakistan nervously attempts to put itself at the centre of regional manoeuvring to catch Osama Bin Laden and replace the Taleban regime in Afghanistan.

Pakistani ministers welcomed Mr Blair's speech to the British Labour Party conference earlier this week because alone among leaders of the coalition against terrorism, he has seemed to call explicitly for action against the causes of terror.

For many Pakistanis, including senior army generals and probably President Pervez Mushsarraf, this means addressing the grievances of Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.

Mr Blair will also hear a great deal about Pakistan's point of view on the disputed territory of Kashmir.

More than anything, Tony Blair is seen here as a slightly more acceptable spokesman for the 'war against terror' than President George W Bush

Many here consider Kashmir - divided since 1949 between Indian and Pakistani control, and a cause of at least two wars between the two countries - to be as festering a source of Muslim discontent as the Middle East.

There is a sense that Britain as the former colonial power here should help resolve issues left behind when it granted independence to this country and neighbouring India.

India of course rejects that view and says Kashmir is a bilateral issue, and a place where Pakistan supports cross-border terrorism.

Pakistani officials who raise Kashmir with Mr Blair will probably hear a few concerns from him about Pakistani support for Islamic militant groups in the Indian-controlled portion of the divided territory.

This takes on new relevance since the devastating car bomb explosion outside the Kashmir state assembly in Srinagar left more than 40 people dead, a blast that India blames on a Pakistani-supported militant group.

'Better than Bush'

But more than anything, Tony Blair is seen here as a slightly more acceptable spokesman for the 'war against terror' than President George W Bush, whose comments here seem stilted and occasionally embarrassing, particularly his early reference to a "crusade" against terrorism.

Nonetheless, America exercises great influence in the affairs of Pakistan, and the United States military is closely engaged with its Pakistani counterpart on logistics, planning and intelligence gathering about Osama Bin Laden and the Taleban.

Blair is seen as an 'arm-twister' for the anti-terror cause

Britain has always played a slightly more low key, but no less influential, role here thanks in part to cultural links between the countries' elites and trade interests. The United Kingdom is one of Pakistan's biggest trading partners.

Newspapers editorials are expressing disquiet that Mr Blair sees his role as an arm-twister, convincing President Musharaff to perhaps go further than he has so far in supporting military action against Osama Bin Laden or Afghanistan.

One editorial cartoon has Mr Blair walking into Pakistan with a brief case saying "On her Majesty's Secret Service" and carrying a pistol with a silencer.

Mysterious movements

That could be why British diplomats in Islamabad earlier refused to confirm that Mr Blair was making the visit.

This is ostensibly for security reasons. Many extremist groups in Pakistan lump the British in with Americans when it comes to calls for "jihad" - laying down their lives to protect Osama Bin Laden.

The conflict in Kashmir is high on the agenda

It appears that Tony Blair - whatever newspaper cartoonists may think - has little arm-twisting to do here on the basic point of blaming Osama Bin Laden for the 11 September attacks in America.

Pakistan's normally ultra-cautious foreign ministry said on Thursday that American evidence about the Saudi militant's role in the attacks was "impressive" and "enough to indict Mr Laden".

Columnist Ayaz Amir in the newspaper Dawn, who is usually wary of Pakistan linking itself too closely with Washington and London, reflects a growing view when he advises: "Never mind that it took an international crisis for Pakistan to change course and see the light about the Taleban. There is no point about quarrelling over the means, if the end is correct."

Tony Blair, it seems, is speaking to an elite and a leadership that has already made up its mind to agree with him.