Analysis: Sri Lanka's political rivals

The opposition is taking its campaign on to the streets

By South Asia analyst Alastair Lawson

The intense rivalry between the People's Alliance and opposition United National Party (UNP) is made all the more volatile by the turbulent relationship between President Kumaratunga and the opposition leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Ranil Wickremesinghe: Turbulent relationship with president

Both have accused each other of corruption, with Mr Wickremesinghe recently alleging that the president was tying to turn Sri Lanka into a dictatorship by suspending parliament.

Violence between supporters of the two parties is not uncommon either.

Last year's election campaign was marred by numerous clashes.

Raising tension

What makes the latest clashes unusual is the firing of live rounds by the army and security forces against government demonstrations.

President Kumaratunga: Wants to change constitution

This will not only raise tension generally, but also heighten the level of animosity between the two leaders.

Most commentators agree that President Kumaratunga acted within the constitution by suspending parliament.

The opposition argue that the move is flawed because of the spirit in which it was made.

They say that it was a calculated and cynical attempt by the president to avoid a no-confidence motion.

Impeachment threat

The UNP has warned that it will impeach the president when parliament re-convenes in September, but it is unlikely this strategy will bear fruit as it lacks a two-thirds majority in parliament.

The clashes have drawn attention from the civil war

So far, the influential speaker of parliament - the president's estranged brother Anura Bandaranaike - has not ordered parliament to re-convene.

But it is thought that he may do so in the next few days, and if that happens the political stakes will be raised even higher.

The latest clashes have drawn public attention away from the war between the army and Tamil Tiger rebels fighting for a separate homeland in the north and east.

Constitution

Yet there is a connection between the conflict and the demonstrations, as President Kumaratunga says that she plans to hold a referendum in August on her plans to change the constitution.

She wants to abolish Sri Lanka's proportional representation system of voting and introduce a first-past-the-post system which she says will allow her to command a more convincing majority in parliament.

Once she has done this, her supporters argue, the new constitution will allow Tamil majority areas of Sri Lanka to have more autonomy.

President Kumaratunga hopes that this will bring an end to the island's 18-year-old civil war.

But she faces formidable adversaries not just in the form of the rebels but also from an opposition buoyed by its increased strength in parliament and on the streets.