Analysis: Surprising outbreak of hostilities

Mounting casualties would increase the pressure

By South Asia analyst Kamal Ahmed

Politicians in both India and Bangladesh have stepped up their efforts to defuse the tension following the sudden outbreak of fighting between their border forces.

India has called for an early restoration of the status quo on the frontier, while Bangladeshi officials have said they are confident of an early resolution to the crisis.

There are conflicting details about why the longstanding border dispute between two friendly neighbours has so suddenly flared up.

Indian forces were taken by surprise

It is clear that the trouble began when the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) - the Bangladeshi border force - retook Pyrdiwah village, in the Indian state of Meghalaya.

The BDR chief said that Pyrdiwah had been illegally occupied by India since Bangladesh's war of independence in 1971.

Questions are now being asked as to what prompted Bangladesh to take on the Indian Border Security Force when it had waited 30 years to resolve the dispute.

Elections

This is particularly surprising, given that the Bangladesh Government of Sheikh Hasina has only two months in office before the general election.

Some observers say that Prime Minister Hasina, who has been criticised by the opposition in Bangladesh as being pro-Indian, may have used the incident to shed that mantle.

Both sides claim Pyrdiwah as their own

Others say that some elements in the army may have played a role in the attack, in the hope that an Indian counter-offensive would help stoke nationalist feelings among Bangladeshis, which in turn may help the opposition.

But many observers have ruled out such a possibility.

They say that in recent years discipline has been restored in the army and it is highly unlikely that they would act against the will of the current political leadership.

India cautious

The latest conflict has also posed new challenges for the Indian Government.

It is likely to face increasing pressure from security forces to counter Bangladesh's offensive because of the higher casualties suffered by Indian troops.

However the reactions in Delhi so far have been very cautious.

India values Bangladesh as an important ally in the region and is aware that full-scale retribution would seriously damage their relations.