Doubts surround Kashmir ceasefire

The August ceasefire was seen as a sign of change

By Alexander Evans

After Prime Minister Vajpayee called an unexpected halt to offensive military operations in Kashmir earlier in November, all eyes are on Kashmiri militant groups to see if they will respond in kind.

So far the indications are that they remain sceptical about India's attempt to revive a process that was cut short in August 2000.

Several militant groups including the Lashkar-e Toyeba have already rejected the overture by Delhi.

And the Hizbul Mujahideen leader Syed Salahuddin has also responded coolly, suggesting that it may just be a tactical move by India.

August initiative

Back in August, the Hizbul Mujahideen, one of the largest and oldest militant groups in Kashmir, surprised South Asia watchers by calling a cease-fire.

Syed Salahuddin: Said latest initiative was insufficient

While it only lasted a few short days before breaking down, the fact that it had been called at all was seized upon by many as a sign of change.

Some commentators suggested that war-weary Kashmiri militant groups were fed up of violence.

Majid Dar, the Kashmiri commander of the Hizbul Mujahideen, was pivotal in making the August cease-fire happen.

By carefully securing the support of most of his militants, he delivered a truce - however temporary.

But the August cease-fire broke down in a matter of days amidst mutual recriminations.

Kashmiri separatists blamed the Indian government for changing the framework for possible talks.

The Indian Government blamed Kashmiri militants for demanding that any talks include Pakistan from the outset.

And it did not help that Syed Salahuddin, the Pakistan-based overall leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen, showed little enthusiasm for a cease-fire called by his own Kashmir commander.

Continuing contacts

Despite a welter of attacks by other militant groups like the Lashkar-e Toeba and the Harkatul Mujahideen, quiet contacts have continued since August.

It might be difficult for Indian troops to halt operations entirely

This latest move by India may well be designed to show the Hizbul Mujahadeen that it wants to restart the process.

Does Vajpayee's carefully-worded statement last week mean that another, more substantial attempt at peace talks is underway?

Once again, the word "insanyat" (humanity) was part of his statement - although the term cease-fire was not.

Careful drafting remains the order of the day.

There has been much informal contact between India and Pakistan lately.

A few trusted intermediaries have been accumulating air miles as they try to find a basis for dialogue.

Obstacles

But significant obstacles to peace remain in the 53-year old Kashmir dispute.

Prime Minister Vajpayee: Position may be weakened

While Pakistani leader General Musharraf has again stressed his willingness to talk to India, Kashmiri separatist groups have given a subdued response to Vajpayee's statement.

Some, like JKLF leader Yasin Malik, have cautiously welcomed the move.

But many others, including key Hizbul Mujahideen leaders, have dismissed the Indian initiative as an insufficient basis for talks.

Without at least some militant groups also declaring a lull in their campaign, the Indian halt to proactive operations is likely to lead nowhere fast.

It will be difficult for Indian security forces to halt operations entirely if militant attacks continue.

All the same, Prime Minister Vajpayee has taken a significant gamble by offering this Ramadan gesture.

Already facing questions about his health and personal standing within the BJP, his position may be further weakened if this initiative delivers nothing.

Alexander Evans is a research associate at the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College, London