Currently, all European astronauts must hitch a ride on Russian or American launch systems if they want to get into orbit.
Europe would like its own independent system - but only if it is affordable, feasible, and there is a genuine need for it.
The Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), which made such an impressive debut at the space station last year, is seen as the starting point in all these discussions.
The robotic truck has the ability to find its own way across space and then make a precise, automatic docking at its destination.
What it cannot do is bring down intact to the surface of the planet any portion of its own structure, let alone any cargo.
The maiden ATV ended its re-supply mission to the space station by plunging into the Pacific in a ball of flames.
The 18-month ARV study will set out the technical and cost implications of altering the ATV to make its cargo carrier section fit for re-entry.
EADS Astrium, which will lead a consortium of companies on the project, envisages a conical 4.4m-wide module that would separate from its propulsion unit just prior to its race through the atmosphere.
While the propulsion, or service, unit would burn up, the cargo module would be equipped with all the systems necessary to make a secure splash-down.
"The two key technologies for this cargo vehicle are the re-entry technologies - high speed entry and thermal protection systems; and also the descent and landing capability - the capability to land under parachute," said Philippe Berthe, head of advanced projects, at Astrium.
In two steps
The upload capacity (station experiments, equipment, etc) of the cargo ship would be two tonnes; the download capacity would be about one-and-a-half tonnes.
Inside the Paris air show mock-up
The upcoming 14m-euro study, though, will have an eye on something much grander.
While Esa is thinking in the first instance only of producing an unmanned cargo-return module, it wants engineers to think about how they could quickly and easily upgrade the vehicle's systems to support four seated humans as well.
It is a clever two-stage approach in which the flights of the cargo vessel contribute to the qualification of a later crew version - if European states want to go that far.
"The reason why we are studying the manned version of the capsule is not because we are necessarily going to approve it - we may not; but what we are trying to do is develop the cargo version already in line with what could eventually become the human version," explained the European Space Agency's (Esa) director of human spaceflight, Simonetta Di Pippo.
"In this way, we would not waste time and money if - as I hope - the manned version is eventually approved," she told BBC News.
Certainly, it would be an expensive next step. It would mean the Ariane 5 rocket, which currently lofts the ATV, would have to be upgraded also to make it compliant with the enhanced safety measures demanded of human launch systems.
This would involve developing some sort of escape system on the top of the ARV to pull it clear of the Ariane were the rocket to experience an explosive failure on the launch pad or in early flight.
The ARV study will inform any policy proposal that goes before Esa member states at their next major ministerial gathering in a couple of years' time. The nations would need to approve a development programme and a budget to start to make the ARV a reality.
But before they do that they will want to be certain there is a need for the vehicle. This will mean getting some assurances that the space station will be in use up to 2020 and perhaps beyond.
A decision on a manned crewship would come even later, and would depend on there being a clear strategy on human space exploration that goes even deeper into the future - at the Moon and perhaps even at Mars.
"Soyuz started flying in 1967. It was intended first to allow Russian access to the Moon and then access to the Russian station," said Philippe Berthe.
"Now, 40 years on, we are making use of the Soyuz that the Russian designers never foresaw. We think that if Europe develops its own system, in 2020 for instance, it might fly for 40 years."
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