Concern grows for hungry Africa

Only in Africa does the number and proportion of hungry children go on rising

By BBC News Online's environment correspondent Alex Kirby

Researchers say global food security prospects are clear cause for concern.

We've tried to factor in the impacts of HIV/Aids on Africa. But if we've underestimated it, then we could head down a much worse path

Mark Rosegrant, report co-author

Growing human numbers and dwindling farmland and water, they say, will test the capacity of the world's farmers to produce enough.

The outlook is bleakest in sub-Saharan Africa, where one child in three still goes to bed hungry.

The number of malnourished African children is forecast to be 18% higher in 2020 than it was in 1997.

In a report, 2020 Global Food Outlook: Trends, Alternatives and Choices, the authors say that basing judgements about long-term food security on short-term market trends "is next to useless".

"Year-to-year changes in prices and production may contribute to long-term food problems by encouraging complacency during periods of strong harvests."

The authors say understanding food security means focussing on long-term forces: the growth of income and population, technological change in agriculture, and investment in research, irrigation and roads.

Challenge to producers

They say: "The long-term forces have consistently pointed to clear causes for concern.

"The world's population is expected to grow from six billion people in 2000 to 7.5 billion in 2020. Availability of land for farming is on the decline, and water for agriculture and other uses is increasingly scarce.

Grain imports may be too expensive for Africa

"Together these and other forces will challenge the capacity of the world's food production system."

The report, published by the International Food Policy Research Institute, says there have been significant improvements.

"The proportion of children under the age of five who suffer from malnutrition fell sharply from 45% in the late 1960s to 31% in the late 1990s.

"However, because of population growth, the absolute number of malnourished children has fallen much less sharply, from 187 million to 167 m during this period."

The authors say: "The situation is bleakest in sub-Saharan Africa, the only region in which both the number and the proportion of malnourished children has been consistently rising in recent years.

"In a world that has experienced astounding advances in knowledge and growth during the past century, one-third of all children in sub-Saharan Africa continue to go to bed hungry.

Persistent hunger

"And they continue to have their mental and physical development compromised by the ravages of hunger."

The report says the global number of malnourished children is expected to continue to fall, from 166 million in 1997 to 132 million in 2020.

Africa needs development - and good government

"Sub-Saharan Africa, with its combination of high population growth and lagging economic performance, will be caught in an increasingly perilous situation".

The authors say: "The number of malnourished children there is forecast to increase by six million, or 18%, compared with 1997.

"Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain a 'hot spot' of hunger and malnutrition for years to come.

"The costs of not making the necessary investments in the region will be tremendous, not only to Africa but also to the rest of the world."

No basket case

One of the authors, Mark Rosegrant, told BBC News Online: "We've tried to factor in the impacts of HIV/Aids on Africa. But if we've underestimated it, then we could head down a much worse path.

"In the 1960s, people used to say that India, Pakistan and Bangladesh were basket cases. We have to avoid that attitude now.

"There has been progress in countries like Uganda, Ghana and to some degree in Botswana.

"What Africa needs is improvement in basic infrastructure, and in governance. Without progress there, things could be quite dicey."