More wet weather in store

The UK's wet weather may persist until March

Winter in the UK and northwest Europe is expected to be milder, wetter and more stormy than usual this year, according to a team of London scientists.

The recent weather is probably less to do with global warming and more to do with the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Dr Mark Saunders

But Spain, Portugal and the Mediterranean are likely to experience drier and less windy weather than normal.

The forecast is based on a method of predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a cycle of pressure patterns between Iceland and the Azores that influences winter weather in much of Europe.

In its positive phase, the NAO brings mild, wet winters to northern Europe; a negative phase brings drier but very much colder weather.

This natural climate cycle, rather than global warming, could account for the recent floods experienced in the UK, say experts at the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College, London.

Wet and windy

The researchers predict that between 1 December and 28 February there is a 70-75% probability that temperature, precipitation, wind speed and storminess will be above average for the UK and Ireland as a whole.

They believe the reverse will happen in southern Europe, with a 9% chance that precipitation and 26% chance that storminess for Spain and Portugal will be above average this winter.

Dr Mark Saunders, of UCL, told the BBC: "For the first time, we have some skill in forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation for the winter as a whole ahead of time."

There has been speculation that severe flooding seen in much of the UK in recent months is linked to climate change.

Global warming 'hysteria'

But Dr Saunders said that the NAO was a more likely explanation.

"There's been quite a lot of hysteria about global warming recently," he said. "I think the recent weather is probably less to do with global warming and more to do with the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation and current sea temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic."

Dr Saunders, together with Dr Tony Hamilton and Steven George, have already used similar methods to predict other weather patterns several months in advance.

These included the 1999 North Atlantic hurricane season, the 2000 northwest Pacific typhoon season, and the 1999-2000 winter storminess levels across England and Wales.