Laura's Election Notebook

Week ending October 31st, 2008 by Laura Kuenssberg

The excitement has been building for weeks, as America readies itself for the event of the year - of course, it's Hallowe'en.

While others are going election crazy, it is fair to say that this week, the annual spookfest has been as much of a preoccupation as anything presidential.

But of course, with only four days now until Tuesday's big event, the election race is in the home stretch. What's moved this week?

Laura's Video Notebook Part 4

No one's hands are clean

Well, the Democrats are still ahead in the polls - margins vary of course, but the overall picture is substantially the same, with Obama and McCain slugging it out with their eyes focused on a few key states.

With what money the Republicans have left, they are still running ads in swing states trying to pin the "dangerous" label to Obama - claiming that he'd be soft on Iran and that his election would cause an international crisis - courtesy of Joe Biden's recent gaffe and some groups even putting out new adverts featuring Jeremiah Wright - the controversial preacher at the Democratic candidate's old church in Chicago.

The Democrats have of course used negative ads, too - their hands are not clean in this dirty battle. But as a proportion, fewer of their ads have been of a nasty ilk than have the GOP's - there's an interesting analysis of the different advertising strategies here.

But just hammering the same strategy with dwindling funds doesn't seem to be making much of an impact. This excellent summary of all the latest national polls as well as the crucial state polls shows that the GOP tactics aren't shifting much their way .

So this week, some Republicans are starting to say openly that a McCain victory would be a miracle. But the Democrats are still intent on using every last cent of their enormous treasure chest to make sure that that doesn't happen.

Memories of Sheffield?

This week will be remembered for the remarkable "Obama-mmercial" - 30 minutes of TV, without commercials, that his campaign bought on Wednesday night. Airing on several of the main networks and some cable channels, more than 20m people watched the Democrats' hero as he oh-so-naturally chatted to "ordinary people" around the country and addressed the nation from in front of a desk with a stars and stripes flag in the background - not the real Oval Office yet, you understand - but it didn't look a million miles from it.

You can watch a snippet in my notebook this week when the video is uploaded, or if you really want to, watch it at Obama's site. Was it overkill? Well so far, it hasn't backfired - perhaps in the UK it might have seemed presumptuous, self-aggrandizing and triumphalist - Sheffield 1992 anyone?

While I don't think that comparisons between Barack Obama and Neil Kinnock will be made that often, I believe that a British audience would have felt a bit nauseous after watching 30 minutes of any politician, talking smoothly with swirling strings in the background.

But here - well, maybe it just might have done its job. At the time of writing, there is no evidence yet that it will work against the man.

"I'm a bitter gun owner and I vote"

It's wonderful to fool the pundits, we're going to win in the state of Pennsylvania John McCain John McCain's bluff? US Election polltracker

But don't doubt that in some parts of the country there is still a very real and bitter fight going on. In Pennsylvania, for example, where both candidates have been this week, crowds of Republican and Democratic supporters were screaming and shouting at each other with some exchanges that I'm sure neither the GOP nor Team Obama would be proud of.

The press has pretty much declared Obama the victor, and some Republicans are now allowing themselves to be preoccupied with what went wrong, rather than whether they can still win - but it's certain that not all Republicans are ready to give up, and Senator McCain himself still appears convinced that he can win.

"Low-Information Voters"

At root in all of this is that the polls this year are different. Part of the Democrats' expectation is that millions of new voters - young people; Latino voters; African-Americans - will turn out to cast a ballot for the first time, and they expect a majority of them will break for Obama.

But there is nothing certain about whether or not they will turn out. Of course, the hundreds of thousands who have attended Obama rallies, the huge buzz around his candidacy that even led to an Obama pumpkin carving craze (no, that is not something that I made up - you can witness it for yourself here and here), the celebrity endorsements, the merchandise, and all the rest suggest that will be the case.

Yet no one really knows, and that makes the polls less certain this year than in previous times. The advent of the mobile phone is a challenge for traditional telephone polling, too. Of course, this election is not a foregone conclusion - no election ever is. One columnist spells out here an interesting scenario that would now surprise most pundits, but could still play out. And his isn't the only theory that could explain an Obama loss.

It won't be pretty

Meanwhile, Republicans are sharpening their knives and it's pretty clear that at least some of the spats pencilled in for November 5th will concern the future of Sarah Palin.

Known by some now as the "Alaska Disasta", to others Governor Palin, who, let's remember, has pulled bigger crowds than John McCain, should have some kind of leadership role in a future Republican party.

A spat over her position could be emblematic of the row that is brewing in the party: do they have to move back to their more moderate past, or cleave to the base? It won't be pretty.

Checkin' facts and bustin' moves

After nearly two years of campaigning, if there is anyone left in the country who hasn't yet decided how they will vote, there are plenty of helpful and entertaining ways out there to help them decide.

There is a very sensible and useful service to check the facts at the Washington Post. But for more of a cringeworthy trip down Political Memory Lane, Politico has a chart of the most excruciatingly awful political ads of the season, and others are watching this - perhaps rather cruel - spoof response to the Obama interview.

My favourite, and a good way to have a laugh at the end of this exhilarating and exhausting ride, is the presidential dance-off. Hosted on the same site is Dancing With The Political Stars - a potential future ratings winner?

So, whose invitation to the floor will America accept? There's really not that long to wait. I'll be reporting live from Washington next Monday, when we'll catch up with the closing moments of this amazing campaign.

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