Laura's Election Notebook

Week ending October 17th, 2008 by Laura Kuenssberg

Sarah "Read My Lipstick" Palin is still pulling crowds of many thousands to her rallies. The Daily Politics went to see one of her gatherings at the Salem High School Football Field in New Hampshire.

But Governor Palin and her boss are stumped, stuck behind Obama in the polls - more than seven of which are now giving him double-digit leads.

The number of states that are still "toss-ups' - swing states where each side has an even shot of victory - is dwindling.

Watch Laura's film

Team McCain pulled its TV ads in Maine just yesterday and in Wisconsin today - a sure sign that they've practically given up of any chance of winning there.

So they're chucking the kitchen sink at Obama and the campaign's gone nasty, with attack ads airing in swing states accusing Barack Obama of being friends with terrorists, of planning to strip citizens of their gun rights and of being a radical supporter of abortion.

There are negative ads about John McCain too, but they have been, for the most part, less vicious.

And as an interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal suggests, it's the Republicans who have really been going for the attack.

How mean to be?

But with the GOP further behind than ever, it's not just that the negative ads haven't been working - it's that the campaign can't seem to agree on how mean to be, and how pointed the attacks.

Those in the McCain camp have been squabbling among themselves and several prominent senior Republicans have publicly expressed their concerns. And while Senator McCain challenged people in the crowd to town down their personal attacks on Obama at some rallies, ads he approved were running on TV and online at the same time.

A senior campaign official I spoke to yesterday didn't waste much effort pretending that things were going well. Had the nasty stuff been more coherent, perhaps it would have had more impact - but after spending time with Team McCain yesterday, I got the sense that the effort is pretty downhearted and chaotic.

Late on Thursday, the Republican camp seemed to acknowledge that the mudslinging had led them down the wrong path - it was "[n]ot the outcome he [McCain] wanted", reporters were told. Would he have said the same, if the attacks had provided any traction in the polls?

Angrier and more forthright

On Wednesday night, when McCain had his big chance to go tough on Obama face-to-face, he took it. The millions of Americans watching the debate were confronted with an angrier and more forthright John McCain.

He played Mr Angry against Mr Cool - McCain even talked of Joe The Plumber, a man who challenged Obama on tax. But polling done on Thursday showed that it didn't wash with the undecided voter.

It's just emerged, in fact, that despite his tales of being a hard-up plumber, Joe The Now-Famous Plumber From Ohio does not in fact have a plumbing license.

He reckons he doesn't need one, as he works for someone else. In fact, according to reports, he should indeed have a licence to do his job - and perhaps hopes that he might become a proxy attack dog for the GOP might not work out after all, given his less than perfect understanding of the rules.

His case, however, provided - perhaps unusually - an explanation of how one of the candidates' policies would actually affect a particular voter.

So far, even the new-found fame of Joe The Plumber is not kickstarting McCain's effort or helping with the problems of his running mate Sarah Palin. 24 hours after her selection, she was a star - but this week, she was found to have abused her power in her position as governor of Alaska, providing even more ammunition for the satirists who are practically living her at the moment. It makes you wonder whether John McCain still thinks she was such a good pick.

Splinter in Obama's side

But what has Team Obama been up to this week?

Trying to stay calm, breaking fundraising records, again, and outspending their rivals by miles. Rumour has it they have even bought a full half hour of network TV that will air in the last week of the campaign. But reporting on the activities of voters' rights groups Acorn has been a bit of a splinter in their side. John McCain's team has been doing its best to make it hurt. Here's the ad.

Obama has been officially backed by the group, which campaigns to register voters, mainly those from low income groups. In several states, there have been accusations that they have been involved in fraudulent registrations - not voter fraud at this stage, but signing up fictitious people. Here's a post from Pajamas Media.

It potentially matters for Obama - because, although the group is not meant to encourage voters, real or not, to choose either candidate, there is plenty of evidence of its workers supporting Obama/Biden. But the Democrats play down the extent of his involvement.

In truth, a project that sets out to register millions of new voters is never likely to be run without a hitch. But some, like this lot, think that it might be safer not to vote at all - just a bunch of ordinary people with a perhaps understandable response to the circus of this lengthy campaign.

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

See also, from October 8th:

Wooing the crowds in Nashville?