The battleground of Stourbridge

By David Thompson Reporter, Politics Show

Data company Experian records Stourbridge voting patterns

It is now less than nine months to the general election, and we are tracking Stourbridge in the West Midlands.

The town epitomises the kind of seat David Cameron must win if the Conservatives are to form a government at the next election.

Labour holds it with a near anorexic majority of 407.

Boundary changes have probably helped the incumbent, Lynda Waltho, a bit, but it is one of the Conservative Party's top targets.

But there is more to it than that. Research shows it is one of the most representative constituencies in the country.

Its strengths and weaknesses are mirrored in towns everywhere. In short, it is Britain in microcosm.

The task ahead

If you look at the polls you might assume that Mr Cameron already has the keys to Number 10 jangling in his coat pocket. But let us briefly consider the sheer scale of his task.

West Midlands Facts The unemployment rate (for those aged 16 plus), at 10.5% in May to July 2009, was the highest among all English regions A higher proportion of children (19%) lived in workless households in the second quarter of 2008, than the UK average of 16% In April 2008, the median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates was £450, lower than the UK median of £479 Source: Office for National Statistics

In 1983, Michael Foot was thrashed in the general election. Just 209 Labour MPs were returned to Parliament. It was the party's worst election result since the war and it took them another generation to get back into Downing Street.

David Cameron is starting from an even lower point. In 2005 the Conservatives did even worse than Michael Foot. Michael Howard got just 198 MPs.

So David Cameron needs another 116 of them - at least - on a swing of something like 7% - to have even the slimmest of majorities.

And only once since the war has anyone bettered that kind of performance - Tony Blair in 1997.

---

The Battleground

Here we set the scene for the Politics Show's election coverage. We'll be featuring the places and people in the consitutency as the general election campaign gets underway.

In my first report we set the scene. What is Stourbridge like as a constituency, what are the people like and how do they feel in 2009?

A company called Experian deals with huge amounts of data about things like credit ratings, supermarket shopping habits and voting patterns. There are a few streets in Stourbridge full of floating voters - it is here where the election will be won and lost.

Liberal Democrats

We see if football, ballet and liberal democracy are good matches in Stourbridge.

The bookies are not giving the Liberal Democrats very good odds in Stourbridge, the fight has historically been between the Conservatives and Labour.

But with those new boundary changes giving Labour a notional majority of 1,285 (2.9%), voters who have yet to make up their minds will play a vital role. And the Liberal Democrat level of support will be important. We took the candidate to a football match and a ballet class.

Labour

Lynda Waltho MP has been to a barber's shop in Stourbridge to listen to the concerns of voters.

We are profiling the candidates of the three main parties.

The incumbent Lynda Waltho MP is selling the Labour message hard. We took her to a barber's shop to listen to constituents' concerns.

The Conservatives

Margot James is hoping to convince people that the Conservatives are the only choice in the general election.

The Conservative candidate likes to host dinner parties, so we invited Stourbridge Bikers' Club to enjoy a debate with her over a tasty helping of Shepherd's pie.

---

Watch the Politics Show, Sundays, at 1200 on BBC ONE

What do you think? Have you got any interesting stories from Stourbridge? Use the form below to let us know.