Labour Spring Conference

Nick Watson Producer Politics Show West Midlands

Labour invades Birmingham for the Spring conference

Labour is in Birmingham for its annual Spring Conference. It runs from Friday 29 February to Sunday 02 March, 2008 at the International Convention Centre.

This week Professor Mick Temple, who lectures in Politics and Journalism at Staffordshire University, gives his own personal verdict on Gordon Brown's tenure as PM so far and how the new PM might fare in the May 2008 local elections and beyond.

You can read some of your comments on the programme here...

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Professor Temple writes...

Professor Mick Temple considers Gordon Brown's prospects for 2008

Gordon Brown bounced into Bournemouth for September's Labour party conference as the undisputed winner of the next general election.

A few days later his authority seemed fatally wounded as he dillied and dallied, and then pulled back from an election he would surely have won.

As Labour invades Birmingham for its Spring conference, the question is starting to be asked - are we seeing a re-run of Callaghan's last days? Or even, dare one say it, are there echoes of John Major's protracted agony?

Well, let's not get too carried away with such comparisons. Brown has some advantages over Callaghan and Major.

Cause for concern

Both faced a charismatic leader of the opposition with a coherent platform for change. Crucially, David Cameron has yet to convince that he will make a good prime minister and it's still not clear what he stands for.

Voters here are now more likely than anywhere else in the UK to say they will vote Conservative at the next election. Prof Mick Temple

However, the latest opinion polls are uncomfortable for Labour. They put the Conservatives on course for an overall majority. We know that polls are ephemeral, but hidden in them is a far deeper cause for concern for Gordon.

Success in the Midlands, spiritual home of Mondeo Man, Worcester Woman and swing voters, is essential. And voters here are now more likely than anywhere else in the UK to say they will vote Conservative at the next election.

So a number of the region's Labour MPs - including Gisela Stuart (Birmingham Edgbaston) and Janet Dean (Burton) - should be pretty worried about holding on to their seats.

Battleground or burial ground?

But that's still a year or more away. The potentially negative consequences for Brown in the forthcoming local elections are more immediate.

Labour is defending seats from what was its worst local government performance (2004) for more than 30 years.

Brown cannot afford to lose seats from that low point - he must be able to show his leadership has made a difference.

The signs are not good. It's difficult to see Labour clawing back seats in the big metropolitan boroughs like Birmingham.

Look out for Nuneaton & Bedworth, one of only three Labour-controlled district councils in England. Half the seats are up for grabs on 01 May 2008 and it will take less than a 4% swing for the Conservatives to take control.

Its loss would be a major blow to Brown's authority.

As always, the Midlands will be a key battle-ground. Gordon Brown needs to deliver soon or it could be his burial ground.

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Our Political Editor Patrick Burns will be joined live by Work & Pensions Minister and North Warwickshire MP Mike O'Brien at the ICC.

Also in the programme ...

A Midlands council is planning to introduce new charges for one of its previously free doorstep rubbish collection services.

Bromsgrove District Council wants to start charging £45 a year from April 2009 for collections from its green wheelie bins, which contain garden waste.

Up until now the service had been included as part of the annual council tax bill - but that could all be about to change.

The move has provoked an angry reaction among some of the town's residents and has prompted a campaign against the proposals by the local newspaper, Bromsgrove Standard.

It comes as the Government has revived the debate about pay-as-you-throw rubbish schemes. The more you throw away the more you pay.

Pilot scheme

Last time the idea was floated in the Lyons Report it got a hostile response from the public but now five local authorities are being asked to volunteer for a new pilot scheme.

But is it really so unreasonable to charge people who generate more rubbish to cart it away? It is a question which always provokes a lively debate.

Our reporter Joan Cummins has been to Bromsgrove to find out how people there are reacting to the idea.

We will also have live reaction in the studio from Solihull Liberal Democrat MP Lorely Burt to the results from the I Want A Referendum campaign polls on the EU Treaty - which will be revealed exclusively in the network part of the programme.

The Politics Show for the West Midlands, with Jon Sopel and Michael Collie on Sunday 02 March at 12:00 GMT on BBC One.

If you have an issue you would like us to follow up then please write to the producer of the show: Nick Watson, BBC Politics Show, The Mailbox, Birmingham, B1 1RF or email [e-mail]