Should we trust the Colonel

Should we trust the Colonel

Senior British and US diplomats were preparing to hold secret talks in London with officials from Libya. They were aiming at resolving once and for all the thorny issue of Lockerbie.

But while Britain was working behind the scenes towards bringing Libya in from the cold, Washington has added the country to its list of rogue states, intent on acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Libya protested its innocence and said it was cooperating fully in the war on terrorism.

Frank Gardner reported on whether we should trust the word of the Colonel.

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FRANK GARDNER:
Tarhunah in Libya. Was this a secret chemical weapons plant or a harmless pharmaceutical factory? Does this man still hate the West or is he a new partner in the war on terror? Is America eavesdropping on innocent phone calls or gathering evidence for a damning accusation?

JOHN BOLTON:
(US Under-Secretary for Arms Control)
There is no doubt that Libya continues its long-standing pursuit of nuclear weapons.

FRANK GARDNER:
There is still a big question mark over Colonel Gaddafi's Libya. The Lockerbie trial may be over, but this remains a rogue state, according to the US. That's an unfair stigma, say Libyan officials. To try to steer it out of its isolation, British and US diplomats are about to sit down in London with their Libyan counterparts. They'll be discussing what Libya has yet to do to get UN sanctions lifted altogether. There's no doubt that Libya IS making progress. It's publicly renounced terrorism. It's co-operated over the Lockerbie investigation. It's hinted that it will pay compensation to the victims' families but it's yet to accept responsibility for the actions of its officials. And that's one of the areas the talks at the Foreign Office will soon be focusing on. What goes on behind these walls in the secret talks with the Libyans will largely remain a secret. Dealing with the Libyans is rather like handling a shy, nocturnal animal that has to be coaxed out into the open. The Libyans are understandably wary of the media after years of being branded as a rogue state. But what we have learned is that the head of Libyan intelligence came here earlier this month specifically to refute US charges that his country was trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction. The Libyans say they don't have any and that they've long ago turned their back on terrorism. The problem is, not everybody believes them. These satellite images include what the Pentagon claims is Libya's past poison gas programme. Washington is urging Libya to join the CWC, the Chemical Weapons Convention. Libya says it will do, but it hasn't yet. That's giving plenty of ammunition to the hawks in Washington.

JOHN BOLTON:
Among its weapons of mass destruction programmes, Libya, which is not a party to the CWC, continues its goal of re-establishing its offensive chemical weapons capability, as well as pursuing an indigenous chemical warfare production capability. Libya has produced at least 100 tons of different kinds of chemical weapons, using its Rabta facility.

GREG COPLEY:
(Defence and Foreign Affairs Daily)
Gaddafi and other Libyan officials are saying one thing to the Western community and another to the Arab and African communities, or several different things. After the Organisation of Islamic Conference in Doha earlier this year, Gaddafi lambasted all of the Arab states, saying that they were cowards and they couldn't match what Osama Bin Laden had done, and that Osama Bin Laden was a hero. He's saying to the West he deplores terrorism, but to the Arabs he's saying something entirely different.

FRANK GARDNER:
It's true that there are certainly mixed signals coming out of Tripoli. The Libyan authorities have denied having any weapons of mass destruction. They've reminded the world that Libya has signed treaties against terrorism and biological weapons. It's also condemned what happened on September 11th. But in a recent interview with Al-Jazeera television, Colonel Gaddafi hinted at what many Arabs feel is their right - military parity with Israel.

COLONEL MU'AMMAR GADDAFI:
(Libyan Leader)
TRANSLATION:
We call for the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction but this should apply to the Israelis as well and we should continue to demand it. The Arabs should have the right to possess such weapons so there's a mutual deterrence and peace can be achieved. After World War Two, the idea of mutual deterrence guaranteed there was world peace.

FRANK GARDNER:
Western intelligence agencies and the Israelis are keeping an eye on Libya. Colonel Gaddafi is thought to have cut his links with terrorists ten years ago but the West still worries about his alleged missile programme and other weapons. Because Libya is something of a closed state, there's a shortage of human intelligence. So there's a heavy reliance on satellites in space. And these days, a lot of information is publicly available from commercial satellites. We ordered up some pictures of Libya's alleged weapons facilities, and took them to an expert. Professor Jasani is perhaps the world's leading analyst when it comes to detecting weapons from space. What can you tell from these images?

PROFESSOR BHUPENDRA JASANI:
(King's College, London)
We are now looking at Tarhuna chemical plant in Libya. If we can zoom into this image now, we might just be able to see some very bright signatures that look like entrance to the tunnels here. Now why are they bright signatures? Because it is said that the Libyans have reinforced the tunnels by lining them with concrete. You can see bright signatures on the drawing here.

FRANK GARDNER:
So having seen these images, are you suspicious that Libya has had, or does have, chemical and bio-weapons facilities?

PROFESSOR BHUPENDRA JASANI:
I think so.

FRANK GARDNER:
So, suspect signs, but today the Libyans shrugged it off.

DR. IBRAHIM AL-BESBAS (Libyan Foreign Ministry - speaking from Vienna)
We have seen no proof of what the Americans have been saying. We asked them to come up with proof but they haven't. All they come up with is some satellite imagery that they claim to be facilities of the Libyans. But we live in a world of digital devices and any amateur who can do some digital photography can come up with anything much better than that. I can make you see things that you will probably believe are true, but what the Americans show, shows nothing at all.

FRANK GARDNER:
And back in Tripoli, the Libyans have more pressing concerns. Colonel Gaddafi, seen here with the man acquitted of the Lockerbie bombing, is reported to be terminally ill. Right now there's a power struggle going on. On the one hand there are the old-style revolutionaries, men conditioned by years of conflict with the West. On the other there are the reformers, the moderates pushing for a settlement over Lockerbie. Some of them are in favour of paying the compensation, to put Libya back on the world map. And then there's the pretender to the Libyan throne, the grand nephew of the last King of Libya.

PRINCE IDRIS AL-SANUSSI:
(Exiled heir to the Libyan throne)
I think what's going on in Libya today is a struggle within Gaddafi's entourage and family. He's trying to secure succession to his son and I don't think the people or the army are accepting this kind of situation or this kind of succession.

FRANK GARDNER:
Much of Libya's future could soon be decided here, in London. At their embassy or "People's Bureau", as they call it, the Libyan negotiating team will soon be arriving for talks with Britain and the US. There's a lot riding on them, and not just for the Libyans. The way the West handles Libya is something of a test case in this age of the war against terrorism. Because this is a country with a known terrorist past, and a suspected, if unproven, chemical weapons programme. Today Libya is reaching out to the West. It's co-operating on Lockerbie, and it's offering its help in the war against terrorism. So, if these advances are accepted, and Libya starts to break out of its isolation, then that will help the reformers and moderates inside Libya. But if they're rejected, and Libya remains isolated, then hard-liners both there and elsewhere will say, "We told you so, cooperating with the West gets you nowhere." Saad Djebbar, an expert on Libya, is one of those who thinks now is the time to bury the troubled past.

SAAD DJEBBAR:
(Royal Institute of International Affairs)
I think there is goodwill now on the part of the Libyans to move forward and there are good elements within the Libyan delegation who wanted a new break, a new face, new relations and a new form of relations with the West and the United States. And they regard their relationship with the US as an important one. So one has really to reciprocate, otherwise you really give way to the hard-liners on both sides who have been fighting it out for the last 20 years and led to nowhere. Indeed they have harmed the interests of the two peoples.

FRANK GARDNER:
But the West still needs to be sure that Libya's Colonel Gaddafi really has abandoned his bad old ways. There's not much to fear from his outdatedarmy, but for Libya to fully re-join the world community, it will have to pay its dues to the Lockerbie victims' families, and sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, to prove beyond doubt it has no banned secret weapons lurking in the desert. The ball says Britain is firmly in Libya's court.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.