Anti-Syrians heading for victory

By Jim Muir BBC News, Beirut

Lebanese politics will be steered by new anti-Syrian forces

The anti-Syrian alliance in Lebanon headed by Saad al-Hariri appears to be heading for victory in the fourth and final round of voting in the country's general elections in the north of the country.

They are the first polls in 30 years to be held without a big Syrian presence in the country.

Early results showed the alliance was expected to take most if not all the 28 seats in the north, giving it an overall majority in the new parliament, despite a late challenge from the former general, Michel Aoun.

Saad al-Hariri, the 35-year old billionaire who heads the anti Syrian coalition, said the people had voted for change and that is what he and his allies were calling for.

Although official results are not yet out, both the coalition itself and its rivals are signalling their belief that Mr Hariri's list has scored a clear victory.

It has easily done well enough to take the 21 seats it needed to ensure an overall parliamentary majority.

Suleiman Franjieh, the Maronite Christian leader who heads the northern coalition allied to Gen Aoun, has conceded that his list was trailing.

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze chief who is a key ally of Mr Hariri, said that General Aoun had failed - he had been cut down to his natural size.

Syrian control

So, after three decades of domination by Syria, Lebanese politics will be steered by people determined to assert the country's independence, though they all stress that good, balanced relations with Damascus are vital.

Syria will retain strong influence through the Shia factions Hezbollah and Amal.

They will control a block of 35 seats in the 128-seat assembly.

Leaders of the anti Syrian alliance have made it clear they will waste no time in starting to dismantle the security and other structures the Syrians set up to help them control the country.

But Gen Aoun, with a block of 21 seats, has established himself as the most significant Christian political figure. His views will be hard to ignore.