Blowback from Edinburgh?

A Scottish National Party member holds a mini Scottish flag

BBC Radio 4's Analysis: Blowback from Edinburgh? is broadcast on Thursday 4th December at 20.30 GMT and repeated on Sunday 7th December at 21.30 GMT.

Read the programme transcript

For a long time, Scottish politics was in an age of complacency, when all the main parties were able to fall back on some comfortable nostrums.

For the Scottish National Party, that the drift to greater autonomy and ultimate independence for Scotland was now unstoppable; for Labour, that Scotland could be relied on to keep their opponents out of power; for the Tories, that Scotland didn't much matter because the real battleground was England; for the Liberal Democrats, that seats fell into their hands if they were patient.

I think the current financial crisis has brought to the surface some deep concerns people had about the possibility of an independent Scotland

Margaret Curran MP

Not any more. In this edition of Analysis David Runciman examines the fast-changing terrain of Scottish politics and asks what significance it could have for the rest of the UK.

He starts by returning to the unexpected consequences of the current devolution settlement. Leading historian Linda Colley suggests that few people in Westminster really thought through the consequences of creating a Scottish Parliament.

Now the economic crisis means both supporters and opponents of independence have to create new narratives. The prime minister can argue that it demonstrates that small economies - like Scotland's - need the protection of being part of a larger whole.

Had we had the opportunity to develop a robust oil fund and a robust industrial base...we would have been in an stronger position than we are now

Michael Russell MSP

However, nationalists say that if oil revenues had been used responsibly, Scotland would have been in a much better position to weather the financial storm, undisturbed by what one politician calls "London's cocaine-snorting teenagers playing around with their algorithms."

It's also creating some strange convergences of opinion. Many Conservatives believe Scotland receives a disproportionately high share of tax revenue - and so they may not be averse to giving Edinburgh greater powers to raise and spend its own taxes.

Those who envisage that you can have some sort of Fred Astaire - Ginger Rogers relationship between David Cameron and Alex Salmond are looking down the wrong end of the telescope

Charles Kennedy MP

Meanwhile Labour is going to face the tricky task of pushing forward two narratives at once - portraying itself as the party of government in England and of opposition in Scotland.

This new world of competing narratives, convergences and strategies is likely to mean that the blowback from Edinburgh will be uncomfortably warm for politicians of all parties as they approach the next general election.

Contributors to Blowback from Edinburgh:

Linda Colley author of Britons: Forging the Nation 1707-1837
David McCrone Co-Director of the Institute of Governance, Edinburgh University
Margaret Curran Labour MSP
Professor Brian Ashcroft Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Michael Russell SNP MSP, Environment Minister Scottish Government
David Davis Conservative MP
Alan Massie Journalist and Novelist
Charles Kennedy Liberal Democrat MP
Tam Dalyell former Labour MP