Problems in the Pipeline

Can we rely on fossil fuels?

BBC Radio 4's Analysis: Problems in the Pipeline, was broadcast on Thursday, 16 December, 2004 at 20:30 GMT.

Read the programme transcript

Carbon emissions are rising again but creating a low carbon economy seems as far off as ever despite more scientific evidence about climate change.

Lately, however, a numbers of things came together - Iraq, instability in oil producing regions, and the symbolic passage of the UK under the self sufficiency bar, gas by next year, oil a few years later. Then came the oil price hike and projections of the consequences of Indian and Chinese growth on future demand.

The government changed tack on wind, making it easier to get planning permission for turbines in England and Wales, but there is no practical likelihood of targets for wind generation being met. We still depend on King Coal, mined in increasingly antiquated pits.

"Depletionists" had gone quiet with the discovery in recent years of new oil reserves and, with glitches, an upward tilt in supply. Anti-depletionists are still saying there is fossil fuel aplenty but even if true there is also likely to be geopolitical instability in producing regions.

Nuclear industry lobbyists say smugly: "You cannot do without us". Which is true - except nuclear is insecure and perceived as dangerous. But we note new reactors being built in Scandinavia and France and new storage facilities pioneered in Finland.

Yet, despite domestic price rises, the public seems to be unmoved. A succession of mild winters have dulled fears. The motorists' lobby has seen off attempts to increase fuel duty. So what is the balance to be between nuclear, coal, gas, oil and renewables?

And how is the public, largely apathetic, to be engaged in collective decision making about its (and the planet's) future while continuing to drive, heat homes, switch on lights? David Walker looks at the crunch decisions that have to be taken - and soon - if the lights are to keep burning.

Presenter: David Walker
Producer: Ingrid Hassler
Editor: Nicola Meyrick