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Last Updated: Thursday, 8 August, 2002, 12:39 GMT 13:39 UK
Follow the leader?
Analysis: Follow the leader

Economic slowdowns have often been preceded by stock market falls.

And with business and household debt at record levels while profits remain subdued and the dollar slides, the future certainly looks darker for America's economy - as well as Britain's and the other rich countries'.

Even the most modest holders of shares have suffered considerable paper losses as the bear market has intensified its grip on sentiment.

No surprise then that some commentators have been freely comparing our present situation with the crash of 1929 and the ensuing Depression.

But in this week's edition of Analysis, Diane Coyle asks whether Wall Street and the City are overdoing the pessimism.

After all, inflation, unemployment and interest rates are all low while productivity, especially in the US, has undergone a step-change improvement in recent years.

Government expenditure is rising at just the right time to compensate for falls in private consumption, and current projections for the major world economies all point to solid growth this year.

So can the big economies prosper in spite of the markets?

Or, if the sell-off continues, what sort of problems are we likely to see and what action will be needed to halt the slide?

Presenter: Diane Coyle
Producer: Simon Coates
Editor: Nicola Meyrick


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13 Aug 02  |  Analysis


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