BBC Wales's Gwenllian Grigg at the Newport count at the city's velodrome, tells BBC Wales' Welsh-language results programme for S4C that no upsets are expected in the constituency seats there. However, there are rumours that Ukip's Nigel Farage might be due at the count sometime during the night - possibly because the party might be expecting to pick up a regional seat - but that will not be known until about 0800 on Friday.
Plaid Cymru's Jonathan Edwards tells BBC Radio Cymru it is looking like it could be a hard night for his party. But he condemns Labour's "arrogance" for assuming it could get a majority.
Liberal Democrat peer Lord Roger Roberts tells BBC Radio Cymru that because of the coalition in Westminster, his party has had to do things it wouldn't have done if it was in government by itself, and that it may be punished for that. But he thought strong local candidates could work against that national trend, and he expected to see a growth in the Lib Dem vote in Aberconwy and Ceredigion. If the party wins seven seats he would go home "smiling from ear to ear", he says.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats may not be facing the electoral collapse some recent opinion polls have suggested. But they look set to return their fewest number of AMs since the assembly was created. The party won six seats in each of the first three elections, but look set to lose Montgomeryshire. A Conservative source says: "We're getting some very positive vibes from Montgomeryshire."
Plaid Cymru looks set to lose votes and seats, we understand. Party sources are admitting that it has been a very difficult campaign on the doorstep and they're "not expecting any gains" as the night unfolds. Plaid is also facing the prospect of being run close in the seats it won last time.
Our political editor Betsan Powys has set out the scale of the challenge facing Labour on BBC One's 10 o'clock news. She pointed out that Labour has only managed to hold a majority of seats for two of the assembly's 12 years.
Worth reflecting on what Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones said at the outset of the campaign. At
Labour's first press conference
of the campaign on 4 April, he said the party was taking nothing for granted. But based on the feedback Labour had received, he said a "comfortable working majority" was possible.
As the polls close across the Wales, Labour party sources are suggesting that they may just fall short of the 31 seats needed to ensure an outright majority in the assembly. The party is expecting some gains and an improvement on the 26 seats it held in the last assembly, but not enough to govern without some kind of deal with another party in the Senedd.
Welcome to the BBC's live page coverage of the result of the Welsh assembly elections. Votes are being counted in large areas of Wales while constituencies in the north will declare on Friday after counting begins there in the morning. I'm BBC Wales political reporter Daniel Davies and I'll be bringing you the results and all the latest updates.