Sadr makes risky move

By Rob Watson
BBC defence correspondent

The Mehdi Army has split into increasingly autonomous factions

Iraq's radical Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr has announced that his Mehdi Army will be suspended for six months, but it is still too early to know the full significance of his statement.

To some extent it may be merely a tactic aimed at distancing himself from the recent violence in Karbala.

It is certainly a tactic he has used before to distance himself from some of the worst excesses of the Mehdi Army.

But it is a puzzling and potentially risky move by the young Shia leader.

Puzzling because the very call for a re-organisation of the Mehdi army would seem to be an admission that he has lost control of it.

Risky because there would seem to be a good chance that the fighters of the army will ignore his order.

Highly potent

Of course, many in Iraq would be grateful for a halt in operations by the Mehdi Army.

The US military blames the militia for the vast majority of the attacks on American forces in Baghdad, as do the British in Basra, not to mention the country's Sunni Arabs and the Mehdi's Shia rivals.

The question is, could Moqtada Sadr really reassert control over his militia if indeed that is really his aim?

Certainly, much has changed since Mr Sadr first started to build his movement in the wake of the US-led invasion.

Over the last few years it has splintered into many factions and groups, some of which could probably be better described as gangs.

And it is those groups which have been, and continue to be, responsible for some of the country's most brutal acts of sectarianism.

But whatever doubts there may be now about the extent of Mr Sadr's control, the movement he nominally leads remains highly potent.

In terms of sheer numbers it is the biggest in Iraq, representing as it does the country's Shia underclass, and it holds sway in large parts of the country.

As ever Moqtada Sadr remains a hard man to second-guess.

US officials and many Iraqis describe him as a very unpredictable and inexperienced leader, though one who cannot be ignored given his huge following among many ordinary Iraqis.