Blair 'listens' on first mission as envoy

By Paul Adams
BBC diplomatic correspondent, Jerusalem

Mr Blair met Israeli and Palestinian leaders in a series of meetings

At the Quartet meeting in Lisbon last week, its new envoy said his first plans were to "listen, absorb and reflect".

In two days full of meetings, Tony Blair has done plenty of listening.

A source present at one of his encounters said the former UK prime minister asked questions, listened intently and advanced no opinions of his own.

His interlocutors, Israeli and Palestinian, spoke warmly of Mr Blair's abilities and wished him well.

But this first visit to the region as international envoy has not just been about hearing what the protagonists have to say.

Moment of opportunity?

On his way back to Jerusalem from the Palestinian headquarters in Ramallah, the envoy was given a brief guided tour of Israel's security barrier - part wall and part fence - and of the checkpoints and Jewish settlements that are visible at almost every turn.

It is unlikely the ambitious Blair would have agreed to become envoy if he felt he was not playing a role with historic possibilities Press uncertainty at Blair role

Palestinians complain bitterly that checkpoints, roadblocks and a complex system of permits make life intolerable in the West Bank, stifling the economy and rendering painfully distant the prospect of a meaningful Palestinian state.

Unless Israel's occupation is recognised for what it is, they argue, then no amount of international mediation and money is going to solve anything.

Israeli leaders, for their part, will have told Mr Blair that such elaborate security measures have led to a significant drop in deadly attacks against Israeli civilians and that they cannot be relinquished without concrete, verifiable guarantees.

But unlike the Palestinians, Israeli leaders are more ready to call this a moment of opportunity.

They have reasons to be cautiously optimistic. The Islamic movement, Hamas, is more isolated than ever.

After the group's violent takeover in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, is now at the forefront of those calling for Hamas to be cast into the diplomatic wilderness.

Those European and UN diplomats who still believe that Hamas, a significant force on the Palestinian political landscape, has to be part of an eventual process acknowledge that they are in a bind.

They cannot advocate something that the internationally recognised Palestinian president is violently opposed to.

American responsibility

There are also signs that Mr Abbas's Fatah faction has given up the armed struggle, leaving Hamas and the even more militant Islamic Jihad as Israel's only serious opponents.

Palestinians say Israeli security measures make life intolerable

Some Palestinian analysts go further, suggesting that in the years since Yasser Arafat's death, Fatah has become so demoralised and divided that it can no longer claim to be the pre-eminent Palestinian party, or even a party at all.

Within the narrow confines of Tony Blair's mandate (build Palestinian institutions, address law and order and the economy), Israel is happy for the Quartet's envoy to support Mr Abbas, and his moderate, technocratic government.

The principal responsibility for reviving the Middle East peace process - and thus setting its parameters - will be in the hands of their allies, the Americans.

The administration of George Bush has made it clear that when it comes to the big issues, Israel can count on his unwavering support.

'Same mandate'

But the Palestinians, and indeed Mr Blair's own spokesman, point out that building viable Palestinian institutions is an integral part of the peace process and that it is futile to try and separate the two.

It is unlikely that the ambitious Mr Blair would have agreed to become the Quartet's envoy if he felt he was not playing a role in a process with historic possibilities.

But he will certainly have paid attention to the warnings of his predecessor, James Wolfensohn, who quit as Quartet envoy in April 2006.

He was frustrated by Israel and the Palestinians, but especially by the US administration, which he says undermined him just when it mattered most.

In a revealing interview published in Israel's left-leaning Ha'aretz newspaper, on the eve of Mr Blair's first visit to the region, the former World Bank president said he was worried that the new envoy's mandate was "exactly the same as mine".

"It talks about helping both sides, helping the Palestinians," he said, "but there's nothing there about negotiating peace."