No happy ending in Berlin

By Jeremy Bowen
BBC Middle East Editor

Rice's vision is to get all sides to see the "political horizon"

A point came in one of the news conferences around the Quartet meeting in Berlin when someone asked the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, a question that was not about the Middle East.

Since last week she has been on the road, meeting the Israeli prime minister, the Palestinian president, the King of Jordan and a range of Arab security and intelligence chiefs.

Dr Rice is not in the habit of showing the strain of trying to do something about the toughest problem in the Middle East.

But she seemed to seize the question about Eastern Europe with relief, telling the Russians they shouldn't worry about the missile defences the Americans are installing in Poland and the Czech Republic.

She smiled and spoke cheerfully about how she used to do nuclear strategy for a living, counting how many warheads could dance on the tip of an American or Soviet missile.

Perhaps, in the city that used to symbolise the division of Europe, she was feeling nostalgia for the relative simplicity of the Cold War, which was, after all, a conflict that had a much happier ending than anyone ever expected.

No-one is talking about happy endings in the Middle East at the moment.

Dangerous saga

Dr Rice's mission, which culminated with the Quartet meeting in Berlin, was supposed to have been an attempt to get Israel and the Palestinians talking about what she calls the "political horizon".

She means the shape of a future Palestinian state.

But, as usual in the Middle East, it was hard to see the horizon, let alone try to shape it.

Instead her trip became bogged down in the latest episode in the dangerous saga that started when Hamas won the Palestinian elections 13 months ago.

In Mecca in Saudi Arabia last week, the two main Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, signed a deal to form a unity government.

After the Hamas victory last year the Quartet of the UN, Russia, the European Union and the United States set down three conditions it would have to satisfy to earn their recognition - and to keep open the international money tap which had been supporting the Palestinians.

Half measures?

Hamas still has not accepted the principles of recognising Israel, renouncing violence and accepting previous agreements made by Palestinians with the Israelis, and seems unlikely to change its mind if and when it enters a unity government with Fatah.

But it seems clear to most observers outside the Israeli government and sections of the Bush Administration in Washington that Hamas is moving towards the Quartet principles.

The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, who was here in Berlin, said it was crucially important to encourage the Mecca agreement.

The Russians feel something similar. Recognition of a Palestinian government is crucial because it would allow the money tap to be re-opened.

But Israel will not deal in half measures.

If Hamas will not do as it is told, it believes it should stay isolated - and noises are coming from the Israeli government suggesting that the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ought to be isolated too if he chooses, in their view, to sell out by joining Hamas.

The Quartet members managed, according to one source who was there, an amiable and constructive dinner after their meeting - perhaps because they don't have to make any hard decisions until the unity government is formed.

But when that happens, the Quartet will need to work hard properly to calibrate a response - and not to split.

Dr Rice will have to find a way to satisfy Israel - and simultaneously not offend the Saudis, the closest Arab ally the US has, who sponsored the Mecca agreement.

At the same time, she wants to get Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert talking to President Abbas about the future Palestinian state.

No wonder she enjoyed being asked about Russia, Eastern Europe and missiles.