Lebanon fears descent into abyss

By Jeremy Bowen
Middle East editor, BBC News

The death of the prominent Lebanese anti-Syrian Christian politician, Pierre Gemayel, comes as Lebanon tries to put this year's Israeli invasion behind it.

Gemayel's death is the latest in a series of assassinations in Lebanon

Lebanon's worst fear is a return to civil war.

This assassination will re-awaken that fear because it seems to have been designed to inflame sectarian tensions at a time when Lebanon was already going through a profound political crisis.

On one side are opponents of Syria - the country that dominated Lebanon for two decades until it was forced to pull its troops out last year.

They include the late Mr Gemayel and the pro-Western Prime Minister Fuaod Siniora.

On the other side are Syria's allies, led by Hezbollah, whose militia fought Israel this summer.

No proof

The assumption in the anti-Syrian camp is that Damascus was behind the killing.

HAVE YOUR SAY This will throw Lebanon into further political instability when it needs effective national unity Abdelilah, Marrakesh Send us your comments

There is no proof of that and Syria has been showing signs that it wants to engage with the West.

If so, it is hard to see where its interest would be in killing Mr Gemayel.

If it was not an order from the president, one theory is that the killing might have been arranged by some element in the Syrian security services.

This crisis could end peacefully. The fear of civil war is strong. Mr Gemayel's father, the former president, has already called for calm.

But significant amounts of instability and uncertainty have been unleashed by the assassination and that could be very dangerous.