Lebanon on the brink of change

By Kim Ghattas
BBC, Beirut

Many Lebanese feel they are peering over a political precipice

Tension between the anti-Syrian government and the pro-Syrian opposition in Lebanon has been rising steadily over the last few weeks, with both sides trading accusations and threats.

The political and world views of each party differ dramatically but everybody seems to agree on one point: something, or someone, will have to give soon.

Talks between the country's top rival politicians started on Monday to look into demands by the pro-Syrian militant and political group Hezbollah that its allies be given more seats in the cabinet - enough for Hezbollah to have veto power over cabinet decisions.

The group has threatened massive demonstrations by its mainly-Shia supporters if its demands are not met - to which the anti-Syrian camp replied they too would take to the streets to show they had the most popular support.

Hezbollah also claims the Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his anti-Syrian allies are American stooges.

But in this tense climate, there are fears demonstrations could degenerate into violent protests.

The talks, described here as national dialogue, started in March to discuss several major issues at stake in Lebanon, such as the disarming of all militias (including Hezbollah) and the fate of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud.

The governing coalition has long demanded that Mr Lahoud resign.

The talks went on for several months but came to an abrupt halt when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers on 12 July, sparking a devastating conflict with Israel.

Dangerous rhetoric

After claiming a military victory in that conflict, Hezbollah is trying to achieve political gains on the domestic scene; it already has one minister and several allies.

Hezbollah, "the Party of God" in Arabic, accuses the anti-Syrian coalition of siding with its arch-rival Israel during the 34-day conflict - a charge that can be tantamount to a death sentence in some circles.

Hezbollah wants its political power to reflect its military might

Hezbollah also claims that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his anti-Syrian allies are American stooges.

Critics of the militant group retort that Hezbollah does the bidding of Syria and Iran in Lebanon.

While the talks, which resume again on Saturday, reflect the complex minutiae of domestic Lebanese politics, international players have also been involved.

Last week, the White House warned that Iran and Syria were trying to topple the Lebanese government with the help of Hezbollah.

So what is at stake? At the heart of it all apparently is the investigation into the assassination in February 2005 of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The inquiry is expected to conclude in mid-December and the UN, with the Lebanese government, is working on setting up a form of international tribunal.

Damning allegations

Syria has been accused of involvement in Mr Hariri's death but denies any role.

The tribunal will give the innocent a chance to prove their innocence and it will give the guilty a fair trial Justice Minister Charles Rizk

Four top Lebanese security chiefs, all allies of Syria and serving under President Lahoud, were arrested and charged in connection with the murder last year.

There is speculation that the conclusions of the investigation will be damning for Syria and its allies in Lebanon.

Russia, a traditional ally of Syria, has raised objections to the draft text of the tribunal and wants members of the UN Security Council to have a say in the choice of judges.

Acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat, from the anti-Syrian coalition, says Hezbollah is in a race against time.

"The only urgent thing now is the international tribunal, but we are very clear, we will not give in on this issue," Mr Fatfat told the BBC.

Linked to that is the issue of the presidency, as the conclusions of the investigation may have an impact on Mr Lahoud.

Compromise chance?

Justice Minister Charles Rizk says the tribunal now appears inevitable and suggests it would be "unwise to oppose it as it's the best tribunal possible".

All the different sides are talking, for the moment

"It will give the innocent a chance to prove their innocence and it will give the guilty a fair trial and a verdict that does not include the death penalty," he said in an interview with the BBC.

Saad Hariri, the leader of the anti-Syrian majority and son of the assassinated former premier, said in a TV interview that he and his allies would resist everything that could compromise the tribunal.

He also said they would not agree to a "blocking minority in government as well as a president who blocks everything".

So, one of the formulas that could be worked out is a new, or amended cabinet, that includes all parties but does not give the opposition a veto power.

The new cabinet could see the light after a new president is chosen or as the process takes place. This may mean having a president-elect until September 2007 when Mr Lahoud's term officially ends.

But opponents of the tribunal may opt for a last-ditch attempt to sow chaos and try to derail or delay things as much as possible.