Rice courts moderate Arab forces

By Jonathan Beale
BBC News, Washington

The spectre of Iran may be looming over Rice's Middle East visit

Just over a year ago, Condoleezza Rice gave a major speech in Cairo that was supposed to have marked a watershed in US foreign policy.

She said the past US pursuit of stability in the Middle East at the expense of democracy had achieved neither.

She added: "We are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all the people."

One year on though, and back in the Middle East, the US secretary of state is talking less about democracy and more about the "forces of moderation".

Forces of moderation like Egypt and Saudi Arabia have hardly made giant leaps in freeing up their societies, but rather act in America's interests by curbing Islamic extremism.

The reason for the change in the Bush administration's policies - though they won't publicly admit it - is that Middle East democratisation has not gone according to plan.

Practical ambitions

The election of Hamas, the rise of Hezbollah, and the failure to bring about peace and stability in Iraq are all reasons for the new emphasis on moderation rather than democratisation, though Condoleezza Rice's ambitions on this visit are more practical than visionary.

She wants to work with a coalition of moderate Arab countries to counter the threat from extremists. This coalition would ideally help support the fragile democracies of Iraq and Lebanon and see off the threat from Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah.

President Bush realises that in order to help achieve his goals, these Arab nations want to see America playing a greater role in helping the plight of the Palestinian people.

So once again, he has despatched Condoleezza Rice to see Ehud Olmert, and the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

President Bush may want to revive the peace process, but it is hard to see how

It is hard to see what progress she can achieve in terms of reviving the stalled peace talks - Israel's prime minister has been weakened by the recent war with Hezbollah and so has his negotiating position.

President Abbas can still not persuade Hamas to recognise Israel and, without that, the Americans will not even contemplate talking to Hamas.

President Bush may want to revive the peace process, but it is hard to see how.

Attack warning

There are two other issues hovering in the background on this trip. Condoleezza Rice indicated to those of us travelling with her on the plane that she might be meeting the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany to discuss Iran later in the week.

Perhaps this is a sign that time is running out for Iran to make up its mind over whether to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

Certainly the US is now trying to build up pressure for sanctions.

The other issue is her appearance in the new book by the veteran journalist Bob Woodward.

State of Denial describes an urgent meeting in July 2001 in which Condoleezza Rice - then national security adviser - was warned by senior intelligence figures that an attack - possibly on the US - was likely.

It is potentially very damning. But speaking on the plane, she told us that while she had many meetings about the possibility of terrorist attacks, she would have remembered such a stark message and that ignoring such a warning would have been "incomprehensible".

That may be enough to keep critics at bay.

But we are now into the mid-term election campaign, and with national security likely to be such a key issue, this may not be the last time this matter comes up on this trip.