The UN's mission impossible?

By William Horsley World affairs correspondent, BBC News

Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, has warned of the risk of a new war in Lebanon unless Security Council resolution 1701 is implemented in full.

But deliberate ambiguities over key issues contained in that resolution may spell "mission impossible" for Kofi Annan, as he seeks to move all the states in the region towards a long-term political solution.

Ambiguities remain in the UN resolution Kofi Annan wants to see implemented

The latest conflict over Lebanon brought sharp arguments among Western nations over the terms of a ceasefire, the text of the resolution, the make-up of a new peacekeeping force, and the mandate of the peacekeepers on the ground.

Key points have still not been made clear.

At last, after last week's emergency meeting between Mr Annan and EU ministers in Brussels, the broad make-up of the expanded Unifil peacekeeping force is known, key parts of it are on their way, and France's President Jacques Chirac says he has received "new guarantees" to enable the mission to be effective.

But some regional experts believe that UN resolution 1701, passed in haste on 11 August for the sake of a "full cessation of hostilities", makes the short-term disarming of Hezbollah more difficult than before.

That is the view of Nadim Shehadi, of Chatham House, London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.

The reason is that the resolution rules out a military solution for the disarming of Hezbollah's fighters, he says.

And in the short term, the hand of Hezbollah has been strengthened.

Its fighting ability in the month-long war showed that it was strong and well-armed. The war also boosted its claim to be a legitimate "resistance" against Israel.

Each country taking part in the expanded Unifil force, led by France, has underlined its refusal to confront Hezbollah fighters to remove their arms.

That is in line with the UN resolution.

UN TROOP PLEDGES France - leadership and 2,000 troops Italy - 2,500-3,000 troops Bangladesh - two battalions (up to 2,000 troops) Malaysia - one battalion Spain - one mechanised battalion Indonesia - one battalion, an engineering company Nepal - one battalion Denmark - at least two ships Poland - 500 troops Finland - 250 troops Belgium - 302 troops, later rising to 392 Germany - maritime and border patrols but no combat troops Norway - 100 soldiers Crisis in facts and figures Olmert orders probes

It says the role of the UN force is only to support the Lebanese army, which is responsible for ensuring that the area is not used for any "hostile activities".

Hezbollah is not even mentioned by name in the text.

Even so, European leaders have raised expectations that the force will create a Hezbollah-free buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

The message is confused.

Finland's Foreign Minister, Erkki Tuomioja, said complete disarmament was out of the question in an area where nearly every household has a Kalashnikov.

But the important thing was that "the heavier weapons - rockets and missiles - which are also the threat to Israel, are eliminated".

As Mr Annan pursues his peace quest from Lebanon to Israel and beyond, this and other key issues left unresolved in Resolution 1701 loom large, threatening to unravel the precarious ceasefire. They include:

• The Syrian border

  Mr Annan says the expanded Unifil force will not patrol the Lebanon-Syria border, unless asked by the Lebanese government. That too accords with the UN resolution, which says the peacekeepers must only assist the Lebanese to stop the entry of unathorised arms.

  But Israeli leaders are determined that all means of re-arming Hezbollah must be closed off. They threaten to maintain the crippling sea and air blockade on Lebanon until they are sure of that.

  Again, the Europeans may have promised more than they can surely deliver. In Brussels, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy promised an "exclusion zone" against Hezbollah arms and fighters in southern Lebanon - but without securing the Syrian border.

• An exchange of prisoners

  Resolution 1701 left this emotive issue to later negotiations. The text only emphasises the need for the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers, and calls for efforts aimed at urgently settling the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Israel.

  Germany is reported to be working hard to resolve problems related to prisoners. But Israel is reluctant to make concessions that may appear as victories for Hezbollah.

• Other disputes

  Other problems are also deferred for more talks, including the fate of the Shebaa Farms area, as well as wider Arab grievances related to Gaza and other Palestinian issues.

  A further UN resolution, setting out other steps towards a long-term ceasefire and solution is foreseen, but with no timeframe.

Mr Shehadi says the international community is saddled with these ambiguities, because the current truce was not to be obtained without them.

So is the UN's peace effort doomed? Not so, he says. Hezbollah might be induced to lay down its weapons in favour of politics if Lebanese people feel truly protected from Israeli attacks without its presence.

The biggest dangers, Mr Shehadi says, are that Israel may decide it is unhappy with the situation at the end of the war and seek "a second round"; Iran and Syria, Hezbollah's main backers, could also dispel hopes of peace if they decide that is in their interests.

So, burning issues have been left to be sorted out after the shooting stopped in Lebanon.

"Now the time has arrived", he says. "The debate is on, both in Lebanon and Israel. And things could go either way".