Analysis: Syria UN border warning

By Michael Voss
BBC News, Damascus

Syria has made clear its opposition to having UN troops along its Lebanon border

Syria's threat to close its border with Lebanon if UN peacekeepers are deployed along the frontier has further complicated the struggle by world powers to agree on the makeup and role of an international force to police the fragile ceasefire.

On the face of it, the threat has left President Bashar Assad more isolated than ever. So what does he hope to achieve by taking such a hard line?

In the labyrinthine world of Arab politics, President Assad's television interview and his foreign minister's threat to seal off the Lebanese Syrian border are aimed at more than one audience.

They are a stark reminder to Beirut that Damascus's interests can not be ignored. The only land route connecting Lebanon to the outside world is through Syria, a critical lifeline even without the Israeli air and sea blockade.

Relations between Damascus and Beirut are at their lowest point since the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon last year, following the murder of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The UN security council resolution 1701, which called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the deployment of a 15,000 strong UN force, does not specifically call for UNIFIL to police the Syrian frontier.

But it does say that it could, at the Lebanese government's request, help secure its borders and prevent illegal weapons entering the country.

Sharp divisions

The government in Beirut is dominated by anti-Syrian parties. President Assad warned that allowing international troops to patrol their joint border would be a hostile act which would "sabotage" relations between the two countries.

The fighting in Lebanon has also opened sharp divisions between Syria and other Arab countries, some of whom blame Damascus for fuelling the crisis with its support for and arming of Hezbollah.

Syria believes it could be a key broker in the region

President Assad's speech will have resonated well on the Arab street. Syria wants to position itself as the one country prepared to stand up to Israel, albeit through its support of the Shia militia in Lebanon.

In a hard-hitting speech last week, the Syrian leader rounded on other Middle East leaders calling them "half men" for criticising Hezbollah's abduction of the two Israeli soldiers which sparked the crisis. In return there have been angry anti-Syrian editorials, especially in the Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi press.

President Assad has tried to ease tensions by telling Dubai TV that his comments were not aimed specifically at those countries' leaders.

Key broker

Syria believes it could be a key broker in the region, given its links to Hezbollah, the Palestinian group Hamas as well as Iran. But it remains isolated diplomatically.

The US still considers it part of the "axis of evil". Most EU countries refuse to engage. Spain did send its foreign minister to Damascus during the war. Germany cancelled a visit after last week's hard-line speech.

This is about to change, with the announcement from UN headquarters in New York that Kofi Annan will include Syria on his Middle East itinerary in the next few days.

But at the end of the day, if there is a single goal that President Assad most aspires to, it is the return of the strategic Golan Heights, captured by the Israelis in the 1967 war.

Negotiation on a land-for-peace deal broke down in 2000, largely over who would control the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee.

The question is: would Syria be prepared to forgo its relationship with Iran and Hezbollah to win back the Golan Heights and is any deal possible outside of a comprehensive settlement on a Palestinian state?