Toughest test yet for Israeli PM

By Jon Leyne
BBC News, Jerusalem

Ehud Olmert has a delicate balancing act to perform

For Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the capture of a young soldier is his first major test since he was confirmed in office in April.

Without word on the fate of 19-year-old Cpl Gilad Shalit, the Israeli prime minister ordered the first major ground incursion of Israeli troops and tanks into the Gaza Strip since it withdrew from the Palestinian territory 10 months ago.

Mr Olmert is talking a tough game.

He has said the military will not balk at taking extreme action to rescue the captured soldier.

Israel is a country where prime ministers are judged on their ability to deal with military crises.

Mr Olmert has to appear decisive and tough.

Unlike several of his predecessors, Mr Olmert was never a high-ranking officer in the Israeli army.

Balancing act

In a country that suffers frequent attacks from Palestinian militants - including suicide bus bombings - security remains the top priority for most Israelis.

Mr Olmert will not want to risk the life of captured Cpl Gilad Shalit

But Mr Olmert is in a bind.

If he acts tough, he will risk the young life of the soldier he says that he has sent the army in to rescue. The last Israeli soldier captured by Palestinians in 1994 was killed during an unsuccessful Israeli rescue bid. But if he appears to be soft, then he will lose the Israeli public.

For now, he seems to be performing a delicate balancing act.

With the Israeli army encamped in southern Gaza - the probable location of the missing soldier - Mr Olmert hopes the presence of the Israeli military will expedite the soldier's release.

The Israeli prime minister says the only purpose of the military incursion is to rescue the captured soldier and that he has no intention of reoccupying the Gaza Strip.

But unless the soldier is freed, it is likely the Israeli military operation will be gradually stepped up in the coming days.

Action or negotiation?

Israel may feel it only has a short window of time to occupy the Gaza Strip before the international community demands its withdrawal.

The military incursion could lead to international repercussions

The next few days could also give Israel an opportunity to target sites used by Palestinian militants to fire rockets into Israel.

Throughout the abduction crisis, the Israeli prime minister has said he holds the Hamas-led government personally responsible for the soldier's wellbeing.

He says, however, that he will make every effort to negotiate with moderate Palestinians to reach a peace deal between the two sides.

But for the moment, Mr Olmert is juggling several considerations: appearing tough on the Palestinians while preserving the soldier's life, and also having to deal with international repercussions if the military incursion lasts for days.