Into a post-Zarqawi Iraq

By Rob Watson
Defence and security correspondent, BBC News

The killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a major and rare success for the US military and intelligence services in Iraq.

Zarqawi had a visceral hatred of Shias, Christians and Jews

It was Zarqawi who was behind some of the most spectacular and high casualty attacks and who brought the tactic of beheading to Iraq.

Most importantly perhaps, he had also made the stoking of a sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias his central goal.

So what effect will his death now have on the violence in Iraq? In the short term the likely answer is very little.

Even before his death his influence and popularity in Iraq had been waning.

He had fallen foul of many tribal leaders in Iraq's Sunni triangle and his targeting of civilians had caused considerable revulsion.

It is also important to remember that most of the violence in Iraq is entirely home-grown.

Though the Americans themselves had over the years helped build up the reputation of Zarqawi, that focus probably ended up exaggerating his role.

No compromise

Most of the violence in Iraq involves a complex mix of local Sunni nationalists and Islamists, former Baathists and Shia militia groups - not to mention a large dose of outright criminality.

It was always inconceivable there could be talks with a man who had an apocalyptic vision of a global conflict Obituary: Zarqawi

That mix of sectarian and political violence is unlikely to disappear unless and until there is either some final political accommodation between Iraq's various communities or arguably until one side comes out on top.

And although there is now a government in Baghdad, such has been scale of the societal breakdown in Iraq that morale is very low, with little faith in either the central government or its security forces.

Of course that is not to say Zarqawi's death will have no effect.

It has left the foreign fighters in Iraq leaderless, at least in the short term.

He also represented a group with which it was impossible to imagine a political compromise being reached.

Though there have been and continue to be negotiations with many of the violent groups in Iraq, it was always inconceivable there could be talks with a man who had an apocalyptic vision of a global conflict between Sunni Muslims on the one hand and Christians, Jews and Shia on the other.

Hatred

Beyond Iraq Zarqawi had also been one of the most skilled propagandists and recruiters of jihadists worldwide, using the internet as a tool for exhibiting his violent brand of extremist Islam.

But despite those skills his passing may not be much mourned by senior al-Qaeda leaders.

He was never close to either Osama Bin Laden or his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Indeed Zarqawi had been criticised by Zawahiri for his outspoken hatred for Shia Muslims and use of such brutal techniques as beheading, which the al-Qaeda leadership clearly considered to be tactical errors and bad for public relations.