Myth of invincible Sharon fades

By Jeremy Bowen
BBC Middle East editor

Mr Sharon's departure may be a watershed in Israeli history

Israelis are reeling from the news of Ariel Sharon's massive stroke.

I thought at the end of last year that it was mysterious how quickly Israelis had absorbed and discounted the fact that their prime minister was ill. Don't forget he had a stroke in December and only came out of hospital on the 20th.

Very soon after that, he was back at work. It was almost as if he had never been ill in the first place.

There were articles in the papers about the fact that he had been put on a diet, and about the small hole in the heart that his doctors thought might have caused his first problem.

But Ariel Sharon, after so many wars, must just have seemed indestructible. It turned out he is human.

Crossroads

Israelis are experts at soaking up emergencies. But the loss of Mr Sharon from politics - and the medical odds are against him surviving, let alone functioning again as a leader - is a highly significant moment in this country's history.

As a crossroads, it is on a par with the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin 10 years ago. Then, in very different circumstances, there was the same crisis.

Suddenly, Israelis were deprived not just of a prime minister, but of a man who because of his military record, made them feel safe.

Mr Sharon courted the less ideological Israeli public recently

Like Mr Sharon, he was hugely unpopular among some parts of the population. But his political power rested on the fact that, when it got tough, Israelis trusted him.

The 10th anniversary of Rabin's death, last November, touched off a debate here about what might have been. What would have happened if he had lived?

Plenty of people, though not all, concluded that things might have been different, and better, because he would have been strong enough to make a reasonable deal with the Palestinians.

In 10 years, will there be the same sort of debate about Ariel Sharon? Maybe - but it will also depend on what happens politically between now and the election at the end of March.

Centre ground

Mr Sharon and his new centre party, Kadima, were way ahead in opinion polls and it looked as if he would be forming the next government - always a coalition in Israel because of the electoral system.

Mr Sharon moved to the centre not just because much of his old party, Likud, had turned against him after he pulled Israeli settlers and soldiers out of the Palestinian territory of Gaza last summer.

He also recognised that there was a yearning among Israelis for a progress with the Palestinians that would satisfy the less ideological part of the Likud and Labour supporters who trusted Mr Sharon to deal with security.

He seized a political opportunity in the centre ground of politics. That still exists. The acting Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert can seize it.

First though he has to persuade his party - and the powerful former Likud politicians in it - along with the ex-Labour Prime Minister Shimon Peres - to support him as their candidate.

Then he has a chance of seizing the Sharon legacy.