Iraq's future in voters' hands

By Richard Galpin BBC News, Baghdad

After the long build-up to this referendum on a new constitution, Iraq's future now rests in the hands of the country's 15.5 million voters.

Last-minute changes have been made to the constitution

The polling stations will be open for 10 hours on Saturday.

But will the electorate accept what many agree is an imperfect document written in haste because it is better to have something rather than nothing?

Or will sufficient voters reject it and force the politicians back to the drawing-board?

In the absence of proper opinion polls, few here would dare predict the result before the election commission makes its official announcement next week.

It would however seem natural to assume that the draft constitution will be accepted, given that the vast majority of the electorate comprises members of the Shia community and the Kurds who were largely responsibly for writing the document.

The Sunnis were initially barely represented on the parliamentary drafting committee because of their boycott of last January's election.

Shia certainty

Certainly during a recent visit to the southern province of Muthanna, where the population is 97% Shia, all the members of the local elite I spoke to simply assumed the outcome of the vote would be a resounding Yes to the constitution.

And that is partly because some provincial leaders have given instructions to their constituents about which way to vote.

"I have told my tribal people that they will vote yes for the constitution," said Sheikh Raysan Al Zayady, "and there are 5,000 of my tribal family who are eligible to vote."

We had travelled to the provincial capital, Samawah, with a delegation from the government in Baghdad, who have been visiting many of the main cities and towns across the country as part of a campaign to encourage people to go out and vote and to explain what the document actually says.

But the governor and other members of the elite were not at all interested in talking about the draft constitution.

Instead they raised a long list of local problems that have been preoccupying them, such as the lack of chairs for schools.

It was an indication of just how certain they are of the result of Saturday's vote.

Another indication was that a second meeting with a larger group of locals was cancelled altogether as hardly anyone turned up at the conference hall.

Sunni anxiety

The contrast could not have been greater when we travelled north to the Sunni-dominated province of Salahaddin with a delegation on a similar mission.

It was led by one of the top members of Iraq's election commission, Adel Allami.

Officials hope violence does not deter Iraqis from voting

In the provincial capital, Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, Mr Allami faced a barrage of questions from members of the local government and other officials.

"Who is responsible for counting the votes?" one man asked.

"Who will ensure the honesty of the elections?" asked another.

The anxiety about the outcome of the referendum was all too obvious.

Although they are in a minority, the Sunnis know they can block this constitution if two-thirds of voters in three provinces reject it.

In total, the Sunnis dominate four of the country's 18 provinces. But it will not be easy for those opposed to the draft constitution to reach this total.

Late changes

And yet, two events over the past two weeks would indicate the Shia and the Kurds are not as confident of an easy victory as once assumed.

Firstly, the government - which is dominated by the Shia and Kurds - tried to change the rules to make it more difficult for any minority to reject the constitution.

The vote outcome has implications for US troops in Iraq

It was forced to back down after an international outcry.

Then, earlier this week, it announced a series of changes to the draft constitution specifically aimed at winning over the Sunnis so they would vote Yes instead of No.

The government talked the agreement up, describing it an "historic day of consensus" for the country.

It has also been sensitive about those campaigning for a No vote having access to the national media.

The only television advert calling on voters to reject the constitution has been broadcast on a pan-Arab satellite channel, not on any Iraqi stations.

American officials insist their only concern is that there is a high turnout, particularly in the Sunni areas from where most of the insurgents are drawn.

"If they vote, it means they've thrown a ballot rather than a bomb," said one US state department official in Tikrit.

But much rides on this referendum for the foreign powers whose troops still occupy Iraq.

If the constitution passes, it will bring them one step closer to the day when their troops can go home.