Troubled Saudi edges towards reform

By Julia Wheeler
BBC Gulf correspondent

The last 12 months have been tough for Saudi Arabia. The country has been forced to face some harsh realities, particularly in terms of security.

Security is high on the streets of Riyadh, following bombing attacks

It has also been compelled to act after increasing pressure for reform both from within its borders and beyond. The year ahead holds further challenges, including the start of a process which could result in profound change.

The conservative Kingdom should have already held its first elections for 40 years by now, but polls were postponed from October to November and then to February 2005.

Despite suspicion from reformists that this could become a familiar pattern, with blame apportioned partly to security concerns, voter registration has gone ahead in the capital, Riyadh and the polls are scheduled to take place from 10 February.

But elections or no elections, the issue of security will not go away anytime soon.

'Religious war'

An attack by al-Qaeda supporters at the US consulate in Jeddah in early December killed five consular staff and four of the five attackers.

This was the latest violence against foreigners in the country - part of the religious war against America and American interests, called for by Saudi-born Osama Bin Laden.

Things have deteriorated so much this year that the US government has advised its citizens to stay away from Saudi Arabia altogether.

Riyadh has been keen to publicise its tough line on militants. The US says there is co-operation between the two countries.

Both are united in feeling threatened by the same extremist ideology.

Political demonstrators were arrested by police last week

Many Saudis refer to the May 2003 bombings at housing compounds in Riyadh as their own September 11.

The numbers killed were far lower, but the seriousness of the threat was, quite literally, brought home to the Kingdom. The fear generated by these attacks has not dissipated for many Saudis or those foreigners who have chosen to stay.

Saudis do not want other people telling them how to run their affairs, but many believe the events of the last few years are beyond their government's control, experience and capability.

They are not only talking about security issues.

'No prospects'

Saudis want the government to tackle the underlying reasons their country is home to large numbers of disaffected young people who feel they have no voice and few prospects.

The Kingdom is a fertile recruiting ground for extremists. Unemployment, especially among the youth, is high.

Social restrictions arising from the strict interpretations of Wahhabi Islam are all pervasive.

Political rights and civil liberties are classified by international groups as being either very poor or non-existent.

MAIN SAUDI ATTACKS Nov 1995: Seven killed in blast near US facility in Riyadh June 1996: Bomb kills 19 US soldiers at Khobar complex May 2003: Bombers target Riyadh compounds, killing 35 Nov 2003: Suicide bomb kills 17 at Riyadh housing complex April 2004: Bomber kills five in Riyadh government building May 2004: Seven die in attack on US firm in Yanbu May 2004: Attack on oil firm compound in Khobar kills 30 Dec 2004: Attack on US consulate in Jeddah kills 5 Timeline: Saudi violence

Political demonstrations are outlawed: in December, a call by an exiled dissident for peaceful protests against the monarchy led to a number of demonstrators being arrested. It was predicted that thousands would turn out.

Fear, not apathy, is to blame for the lack of a visible, peaceful rebellion. Some turn to extremism believing it is the only way to be heard.

It is a favourite mantra of Gulf leaders to say their people enjoy democracy - in an Arabian rather than a Western style. This 'open majlis' policy allows some to shy away from the more fundamental reform encouraged by the US and European countries.

Saudi Arabia has made reforms since the early 1990s, for example, the introduction of the 120-member Majlis al-Shura, appointed by the King.

The feeling among those in power is that reform should satisfy the aspirations of the people themselves rather than be governed or, as they see it, be manipulated by external pressure.

Going to the polls

Reformists say this allows countries like Saudi Arabia to crawl towards representation for their people, rather than embrace it more whole-heartedly.

Those wanting reform both inside and outside the Kingdom are taking some solace from the plans for municipal elections.

Saudi men over the age of 21 are to be able to vote in Riyadh in February to elect half of the people on the municipal council. The other half will be appointed. Other regions are due to elect their councils in March and April.

Unsurprisingly, in a country where women have few freedoms, women will not be allowed to vote at all.

Nevertheless, reformists see the elections as a start and one which could eventually lead to significant change.

Other Gulf states are watching Saudi Arabia closely. They know their influential neighbour is paying the price of limiting the rights of its people socially, economically and politically for decades.

They want to ensure their own stability by working to prevent the problems Saudi Arabia now finds itself facing head-on.