Analysis: Stakes high in Falluja

By Nick Childs
BBC Pentagon correspondent

Retaking Falluja will be a practical and psychological blow to insurgents

The US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, wouldn't call it the final showdown with the Iraqi insurgents.

They're determined, he said, and it's going to take time to defeat them.

But there's little doubting the significance of the offensive to retake Falluja for the US and Iraqi governments' strategy to stabilise the country.

A measure of that is the fact that Mr Rumsfeld insisted the operation would be carried through. "I can't imagine it'll be over until it's completed," he said.

Tough fight

In April, US Marines were ordered to move in to Falluja, only for them then to be ordered to halt because of concerns about the political fallout of high casualties in the operation.

On the sensitive question of civilian casualties, Mr Rumsfeld insisted that he didn't expect there to be large numbers, at least at the hands of US forces

That, the message now is, won't happen again, partly because the stakes are much higher this time.

The operation remains in its early stages. The commander of the US-led multinational force in Iraq, General George Casey, told Pentagon reporters by telephone from Baghdad that the early operations to isolate the city had gone well.

But he also said the fight for Falluja would be tough, as he put it.

Some fighters had left, he said, but others had moved in, with the insurgents likely to fall back to the centre of the city for what he said could be a major confrontation.

The number of insurgents he put "in the ballpark" of 3,000. But nobody's really sure.

Retaking Falluja will be a practical as well as a psychological blow against the insurgents. Even if some are able to melt away, it should be more difficult for them to regroup.

Sensitive question

But just how much of a blow, though, it's too early to tell. That'll depend on how long the operation takes, the level of damage, and the number of casualties.

On the sensitive question of civilian casualties, Mr Rumsfeld insisted that he didn't expect there to be large numbers, at least at the hands of US forces.

They're disciplined, well-led, and well-trained, and know the appropriate rules of engagement for an urban environment.

He also said the residents of Falluja had all the information they needed to stay out of the line of fire, by staying off the streets and away from windows.

'Isolated'

And one critical question which remains is how the "several battalions" of Iraqi troops involved will perform. There have been some reports of desertions.

Pentagon officials have played these down as essentially administrative issues. Donald Rumsfeld called them "isolated".

But the Iraqi forces will have not only to perform in the offensive, but also be prepared over time to take and keep control of Falluja, so that it won't fall back into insurgent hands.