Palestinians face political upheaval

By Alan Johnston BBC correspondent in Gaza

Factions in Gaza are jostling for political influence

These have been tense and uncertain days in Gaza.

Even setting aside the Israeli army's occupation of parts of the Strip, the security situation is always complicated in this densely crowded sliver of land.

The Palestinian Authority's various police and military units operate alongside the forces of well-armed militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

People here have often worried that this combination might boil over in Gaza's political heat.

They have dreaded the thought of Palestinians turning on one another, but that is what has happened over the past few days.

There have been gun battles between militants and part of the security forces, and there have been kidnappings and resignations of senior commanders.

A state of emergency has been declared.

Political split

A young woman called Nisreen expressed the views of many ordinary Gazans.

"It's really scary. People feel things are unstable, that we don't have safety. And we're scared of what might happen next," she said.

"Mostly we Palestinians have avoided civil war, but now if the security services start kidnapping each other things will be dangerous."

Mr Arafat appears reluctant to surrender control over security

The crisis is a product of tension within Fatah, President Yasser Arafat's political machine.

The movement has split wide open between Mr Arafat's old guard, and those who say there must be sweeping reform of the governing Palestinian Authority, which is dominated by Fatah.

This tension turned violent when armed factions - all with links to Fatah - weighed in on the side of reform.

One group kidnapped Gaza's police chief. He was only freed after President Arafat agreed to sack him over corruption allegations.

Another faction, a wing of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, has clashed with forces led by one of Mr Arafat's relatives, General Mussa Arafat.

The gunmen say he too is corrupt.

Conspiracy rumours

There was growing pressure on Mr Arafat's old guard in Gaza long before the violence broke out.

A younger generation has made a strong showing in internal Fatah elections.

Many winning candidates have been close to a leading reformist, Mohammad Dahlan.

He is a former security chief who distanced himself two years ago from Mr Arafat and the Fatah establishment.

But Mr Dahlan has remained a powerful figure in Gaza.

Ten years after the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, people are fed up with the lack of reforms Sufian Abu Zaideh Reformist

Inevitably there has been intense speculation here that the gunmen of al-Aqsa did not suddenly decide to act alone in the cause of reform.

There are deep suspicions in Gaza that the militants have been working with the young reformers.

But one of leaders of the pro-reform lobby, Sufian Abu Zaideh, dismisses what he calls conspiracy theories designed to detract from the pressure for change.

"Ten years after the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, people are fed up with the lack of reforms," Mr Abu Zaideh says.

"People have been asking for a long time for real reforms. They feel that we can do better."

Mr Abu Zaideh is right that, for a long time, there has been contempt among many ordinary people for the performance of the Palestinian Authority.

There is anger at the perceived corruption, and a real desire to see it brought to an end.

Power struggle

But speaking to people in the streets, you do not get any sense that the fight of Fatah's reformists has captured the public imagination.

Many ordinary people still just see this as a power struggle between two sections of the discredited elite.

And analysts do not regard the ructions within Fatah as the product purely of a passion for good governance on the part of reformists. They see other factors, too.

Israel says it plans to end its occupation of Gaza next year.

Organisations that have fought the Israelis, such as Hamas, are demanding a share of the power after they leave.

The Palestinian political landscape is about to change.

Different, powerful factions are manoeuvring to make sure they do not get excluded.

There may be elections, and analysts say that Fatah's younger generation understands that if they are to compete, there needs to be better leadership of the Palestinian Authority with which they are so closely associated.

And some of the actions of the militants in recent days have been a graphic illustration of that manoeuvring for position by armed factions.

One of the groups behind two kidnappings last week talked of wanting to highlight the need for reform.

But they were also pressing to be reinstated to jobs that they used to hold with the Palestinian Authority's security services.