Analysis: Battle for Iraq's future

Jonathan Marcus BBC diplomatic correspondent

The counter-insurgency operation launched by US and Iraqi forces in Samarra could herald a rolling programme of operations intended to assert the interim government's authority over several towns prior to planned elections in January.

For all the violence, Iraqi and US spokesmen insist that these elections will go ahead as planned.

But will it be a genuine nationwide ballot? Here opinions differ.

It is clear that in some areas the level of insecurity may be such that voting cannot be held.

But speaking in London on Thursday, interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi insisted that by January next year, "most of the Iraqi people would be able to vote".

Climate of insecurity

For many observers, it is hard to see the Iraq of today - with its car bombings, kidnappings and endemic violence - as being a place in which effective elections can be held.

True, the violence is not generalised. But the number of attacks - some 80 per day - and their geographical spread have created a climate of insecurity, a perception of insecurity if you like, that has a strong hold on ordinary people's minds.

So the Iraqi government needs to win on two battle-fronts, one practical and the other psychological.

It needs to restore its authority in some of the key towns of the Sunni triangle north and north-west of the capital.

It also needs to wrest control of key parts of Baghdad itself from the hands of militias loyal to the Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr.

But it also has to convince ordinary Iraqis that it is able to grapple with the big security issues and win.

Force is only part of the answer, and for all the protestations that this is a job where Iraq's own new security forces will take the lead, much of the spadework will have to be done by the Americans.

Victory at what price?

That US forces can seize control of towns like Falluja is, in narrow military terms, beyond doubt. They have the firepower and training to operate in such urban areas.

Indeed, when the US marines last assaulted Falluja they were very close to victory before being pulled out - much to the annoyance of many of their commanders.

But victory at what price? Here the essential political nature of the problem becomes clear.

Knocking down half of Falluja and killing large numbers of civilians is hardly going to make the town a suitable location for peaceful elections. Force must be applied judiciously.

And if American troops are to be in the vanguard, then they must be withdrawn as quickly as possible and be replaced by Iraqi forces.

The timing of these operations also has a significant political imperative as well.

Voter registration in Iraq is due to begin in early November, just as US voters go to the polls for the presidential election.

Bush administration spokesmen have signalled that there could be great turmoil ahead.

A wave of US offensives could see significant American casualties, so we are likely to see a rolling pattern of assaults rather than necessarily one grand offensive , at least until after the US ballot.

Bumpy months ahead

But force is only a partial answer. And here Mr Allawi was at his most interesting on Thursday when he said that a variety of contacts had been established with groups close to the insurgents.

Some of the talks, he said, had taken place outside Iraq. Significant work is also being done to try to win over local tribal or clan chiefs, to persuade them that they do have something to gain from the elections.

Mr Allawi was right to say that the next few months will shape the future of Iraq.

The elections are not just about forming a new, more legitimate government. The new assembly will also have the task of overseeing the drafting of a new constitution that will have to encompass the competing claims of the country's three main groups: the Shia; the Kurds in the north; and the once dominant Sunni minority.

That is why it is so important to have effective Sunni participation in the ballot.

It looks like being a bumpy few months ahead. It is very hard to estimate how many hard-core fighters there really are who will try to disrupt the planned elections, whatever happens. They have clearly stepped up the violence ahead of the US vote.

But it is far from clear if they have the manpower to sustain this assault, especially if they come under renewed pressure.

What is clear is that the real battle for Iraq's future is only just getting under way.