Analysis: Allawi's optimism challenged

By Dominic Hughes
BBC world affairs correspondent

To anyone who listened as Iyad Allawi addressed the US Congress and the United Nations last week, his speech at London's International Institute of Strategic Studies covered some familiar ground.

Iyad Allawi insists that January's elections will proceed as planned

"We are making serious progress in defeating these extremists," the interim prime minister said, "and ensuring that democracy wins out in Iraq."

But on a day during which the latest attack in Iraq claimed the lives of more than 40 people, most of them children, it looked like a hard claim to justify.

Security is, of course, one of the biggest challenges facing the government in Iraq and its US-led allies.

Mr Allawi added the ruined economy to that list of challenges.

"It is hard to overstate what 35 years of economic mismanagement did to Iraq's economy, its infrastructure and its institutions," he said.

But he identified the forthcoming election in January as the key test on which the government should be judged.

"We will have those elections in Iraq on time, next year, because that is what millions of Iraqis want," he declared.

Tough talk

And he reminded his audience that Britain went to war "for a democratic Iraqi government which threatens neither its people nor the world. In time, I believe Iraq will become both a model and a leader in the Middle East. At the moment, those days seem rather far off."

It was a rare note of pessimism.

It is hard to see how the preparations for elections can be divorced from the security issues now facing Iraq.

And when Mr Allawi was asked how free and fair elections could take place in areas like Falluja, he was again confident that all the problems could be solved between now and January.

Things cannot be allowed to drift, he warned, echoing the recent tough talk of US commanders on the ground.

It sounds as though the people of Falluja can expect to see some more serious military action in their town soon.

Hostage concern

On the fate of British hostage Ken Bigley, Mr Allawi criticised the media's role in the drama.

Can we justify showing videos of hostages or armed and hooded men, Mr Allawi asked, in so doing providing terrorists with the publicity they seek?

Anything less than success is not worth contemplating Iyad Allawi

"We should all be asking if, by doing this, we not only make it harder to resolve the cases we deal with today, but invite more cases for tomorrow."

Broadcasters like the BBC, as well as newspaper editors, are asking themselves exactly the same questions.

Even if at times his optimism sounded misplaced, Mr Allawi is very much aware of what is at stake in Iraq.

It is an historic struggle, he said, over freedom and democracy in a very troubled region.

"Anything less than success is not worth contemplating."