Sharon takes risk on Gaza pullout

By David Chazan BBC correspondent in Jerusalem

For Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, quitting the Gaza Strip is the only way forward.

According to opinion polls, most Israelis agree with him.

But many of Mr Sharon's own supporters oppose his plan to withdraw Israeli forces and evacuate several thousand Jewish settlers from their heavily-fortified enclaves in Gaza, where they are surrounded by some 1.3 million Palestinians.

Mr Sharon could face a leadership bid if a vote defeat weakens him

Even if members of Mr Sharon's right-wing Likud Party inflict a humiliating defeat on him by voting against the withdrawal in a party poll on Sunday, political sources say he may still submit the plan to his cabinet and to the Israeli parliament.

It would probably be ratified but he would be in the bizarre position of implementing a plan that is popular in the country but unpopular among his party faithful.

Many of them are furious that the man nicknamed the bulldozer because he championed the construction of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories now wants to do a u-turn.

Mr Sharon has stopped short of threatening to resign if Likud's nearly 200,000 members reject his plan.

But he says that if they do vote against it, they would hand a huge victory to Yasser Arafat and Palestinian militants.

He has also argued that it would be a slap in the face for Israel's ally, the United States.

Beleaguered

Only a few weeks ago, Mr Sharon returned from Washington in triumph, having won the backing of President Bush for his plan.

Now, he appears rather beleaguered - although he has refused to be drawn on what he will do if he is defeated.

Palestinians fear Israel will strengthen its hold on the West Bank

Opinion polls suggest that a narrow majority of Likud members oppose the withdrawal plan because they fear it could be seen as a victory for militant groups such as Hamas.

They have not forgotten the jubilation among Hezbollah guerrillas when Israel pulled out of south Lebanon.

Key members of Mr Sharon's cabinet, including Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, have endorsed the Gaza plan, but only reluctantly.

The one senior government figure who has been actively campaigning for it is Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

If a defeat on Sunday weakens Mr Sharon, he may have to fight off leadership challenges from Mr Netanyahu and others.

The settlers have been lobbying party members, arguing that occupying Gaza is essential for Israel's security - a policy that was until recently Mr Sharon's.

But although he now wants the 7,500 settlers in Gaza to leave, his plan calls for most of the nearly 400,000 settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to stay exactly where they are.

Ploy

That is one reason why the plan is unpalatable to most Palestinians - and indeed the Israeli left.

They believe any pullout should be the result of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians rather than a unilateral move.

Most Palestinians see the plan as a ploy to strengthen Israel's grip on most of its settlements in the West Bank.

They point out that Gazans would still not have control over their borders and neither would they be free to travel to the West Bank where many have relatives and friends.

Neighbouring Egypt is concerned that after an Israeli withdrawal, Gaza could be engulfed in factional fighting between the Palestinian Authority and militant groups such as Hamas - or even between different wings of the authority - nominally under the control of Yasser Arafat.

And Jordan is worried about a possible influx of Palestinians from the West Bank, now that President Bush has said it is unreasonable to expect Israel to withdraw completely from the territory.

Mr Sharon may have alienated the right wing of his own party but his plan will do little to calm anger against Israel in the wider Arab and Muslim world.