Crisis deal is a show of strength

By Matthew Price BBC correspondent in Baghdad

There are those here who wanted to neutralise Moqtada Sadr for good.

Instead, as part of the deal brokered to end the crisis in Najaf, the rebel cleric will not be arrested.

The current confrontation began early in August

His men will melt into the crowd. Some may even get away with keeping their weapons.

That will probably send a chill down the spine of some multi-national army commanders.

It will certainly not be welcomed by all the members of the Iraqi interim government.

That's because we have been here before.

Whither Moqtada?

Back in June - after a similar but smaller rebellion in Najaf - Mr Sadr was persuaded to put down his weapons. Again by the Grand Ayatollah. But that deal did not stick.

Three weeks ago, Moqtada Sadr's forces occupied the central shrine in Najaf, precipitating one of the worst crises in Iraq since Saddam Hussein fell from power.

The Iraqi prime minister hopes that if Mr Sadr can be persuaded to join the democratic process, then his fight for the young, poor and disenfranchised in this country will be conducted not by the bullet, but by political debate

So there are those who fear that we have not seen the last of the rebel cleric.

There is, however, another way of looking at what has happened in the last 24 hours.

Moqtada Sadr has been firmly put in his place.

He has failed in his stated aim of forcing the US army out of Najaf and the country.

The highest religious authority in the land has advised the junior cleric of his wishes.

Marginalised

It is known that the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani holds Mr Sadr responsible for starting the Najaf uprising. He will presumably have told him that.

Moqtada Sadr's followers in Najaf and Kufa have to lay down arms

Some argue that were Mr Sadr to be arrested, the only one to benefit would be the cleric himself. It would arguably increase sympathy for him in the country.

The way things stand at the moment, Mr Sadr is left a weakened, marginalised junior cleric who has succeeded only in bringing death to the holy city.

Despite this, the government has said all along that it would welcome Mr Sadr into the political process here.

The prime minister says he believes that all groups in Iraqi society should be represented.

Iyad Allawi hopes that if Mr Sadr can be persuaded to join the democratic process, then his fight for the young, poor and disenfranchised in this country will be conducted not by the bullet, but by political debate.

Sistani's strength

The government's credibility, though, has taken a huge knock during these last few weeks.

It failed to show leadership and failed to negotiate an end to the Najaf stand-off.

The only man capable of doing that turned out to be the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

He always maintains that he is reluctant to get involved in politics.

His voice, though, was louder and stronger than the prime minister's.

In a country where strength is respected, people now know who their real leader is.