Corruption probes put Sharon under pressure

By David Chazan
BBC correspondent in Jerusalem

Even Ariel Sharon's own ministers must be wondering how long he can remain Israel's prime minister under the shadow of possible bribery charges.

Ariel Sharon, 76, has been written off many times before

Chief Prosecutor Edna Arbel has recommended charging the prime minister but the decision rests with the Attorney General, Menachem Mazuz.

He may take weeks or months to weigh up the evidence.

Mr Sharon may not be legally obliged to step down if he is charged, but some Israeli political commentators say that in practice he would have little choice.

Others, however, argue that even if he is charged, the pressure for him to resign could subside if he wins American support for his plan to withdraw Israeli forces and settlers from Gaza unilaterally.

Bush support

If the Bush administration does not back Mr Sharon's Gaza plan, the political pressure for him to go would probably intensify - partly because of opposition to the pullout from far-right members of his government and within his Likud party.

A Likud Party referendum on the plan will probably not be held until after Mr Sharon meets President Bush in Washington in April.

The chances that he will be indicted on one of the three corruption probes are 95% Yaron Ezrahi Political analyst

Some Likud members and one of Mr Sharon's ministers have already called for his resignation.

"It is only a matter of time before he goes," said Yaron Ezrahi, a political scientist at Hebrew University.

"Even if he is not indicted for bribery, there are two other corruption investigations against him.

"The chances that he will be indicted on one of the three corruption probes are 95%."

But another political scientist at Hebrew University, Shlomo Avineri was not so sure.

"Whether Mr Sharon can remain in office will depend on the attorney-general's decision," Mr Avineri said.

Key players in probes Q&A: Sharon corruption probes Sharon and the settlers

"But if he is indicted, the question of resignation will be a political, not a legal issue, and it will depend on the general political situation."

But deciding whether to charge Mr Sharon is a legal matter.

Officials close to the attorney-general say he will only press charges if he is convinced that the evidence is solid enough to secure a conviction.

That's because he would not want to risk forcing Mr Sharon out of office only to see him acquitted.

Some Israeli media have suggested that the attorney-general considers it to be a borderline case.

But he might find it difficult to explain a decision to reject Ms Arbel's recommendation.

Public decided

His predecessor, however, did reject the advice of a chief prosecutor to press charges against former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, although those charges would have been comparatively minor.

Legal analysts say that much of the evidence against Mr Sharon appears circumstantial - at least according to leaks of the draft indictment drawn up by Ms Arbel, which has not been made public.

The case centres on the accusation that Mr Sharon accepted a bribe from an Israeli businessman five years ago to use his influence as foreign minister to persuade the Greek government to allow the businessman to build a casino on a Greek island.

The businessman, David Appel, is also accused of trying to secure Mr Sharon's support for land development projects near Tel Aviv.

Sharon lost defence portfolio over Sabra and Shatila massacres

Mr Appel is already facing charges that he bribed the prime minister by allegedly paying Mr Sharon's son Gilad hundreds of thousands of dollars.

And analysts say the public has already made up its mind.

"The Israeli public believes that bribery did take place," said Professor Ezrahi.

But commentators say that many Israelis, for example those of Russian or Ethiopian origin, or those with roots in the Arab world, have little experience of parliamentary democracy - and they are unlikely to judge their leaders by western standards.

Publicly, Mr Sharon's allies say the combative 76-year-old prime minister - who titled his autobiography "Warrior" - has been in tighter corners and survived.

Contenders

Privately, however, prospective successors are reported to have been frantically scrambling to strengthen their positions.

The likeliest contender is Mr Netanyahu, currently finance minister.

Others include the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, and the deputy prime minister, Ehud Olmert.

Mr Netanyahu has reacted cautiously to the Gaza plan - which according to opinion polls is supported by about 70% of Israelis.

Mr Shalom has spoken out against it but Israeli political sources say any of the three contenders would probably go ahead with the withdrawal provided it had the firm backing of the Bush administration.

Mr Sharon's political future has been written off before, for example when an Israeli investigation criticised him for allowing Phalangist militias to enter the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Lebanon and kill more than 2,000 Palestinians when he was defence minister in 1982.

He lost the defence portfolio and was internationally condemned but he remained a potent political force.

Israelis re-elected him as prime minister because of his tough line against the Palestinian uprising and his promises to improve security - despite accusations that he funded his campaign illegally.

But this time, most analysts agree that Mr Sharon is in a worse predicament than ever before.

"This is a crisis of an unprecedented scale for Sharon and his family," said Professor Ezrahi.