Basra's success could boil over

By Lisa Mitchell
BBC News Online in Basra, Iraq

There are fears of a repeat of unrest in British-controlled Basra this year because the power grid will again be unable to cope despite a $127m (£69m) project to upgrade it.

A massive 10-month project to replace old cables and repair power plants is on course to finish successfully.

But an economic boom in the southern Iraqi town has meant an increase in the sale of electrical appliances such as fridges and air conditioning systems.

Reconstruction experts now think the surge in power usage in the area in August will outstrip the projected need.

Last year tempers flared over fuel and power shortages in the city

Last year, disgruntled Iraqis took to the streets when a lack of power and water in 50C heat was exacerbated by a fuel shortage.

It sparked the setting up of the Emergency Infrastructure Programme to tackle the problems in electricity, water and fuel.

Organised by a British-led team from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and funded in part by the UK Government, it is on course to complete the work which had been designed to make this August black-out free.

However new jobs in the area, partly created by the coalition's building programme, have given local people new spending power.

And the knock-on effect will be an even bigger drain on power than last year as temperatures soar in the summer.

'High expectations'

"Last summer I felt like rioting myself - it was terrible," said Barbara Contini, the CPA head in Thi Qar province, to the north of Basra.

"We believe the demand for electricity will increase by more than 20% this summer.

"With the increased wealth of the people allowing them to go out and buy air conditioners and the possibility of industry starting again, the expectations are not going to match the reality."

Queues at petrol stations in the city are already routinely 12 hours long and despite CPA assurances that there is no shortage, people believe rumours that there is.

Local teacher and journalist Abdul-Razak Hameed said if the power failed again this summer, the public would blame the coalition.

We must be well organised and ensure people are well informed so we do not have riots again Barbara Contini

"They have to do their best to solve the problems. People will be angry if the electricity stops this summer."

At the moment Basra has power around 23 hours a day which is a vast improvement compared with before the war.

But it is estimated it could fall to as low as 12 hours a day at the height of summer.

British engineer Rod Matthews, manager of the infrastructure project, said the collapse of the network last August had created a credibility problem for the CPA.

"The electricity grid was very fragile because it wasn't maintained properly.

"This year the network itself will be a lot more robust, but there will still be shortages."

Because the country is generally flat, water is pumped to Basra. Without electricity, the pumps grind to a halt causing additional water shortages.

Without widespread satellite or newspaper use, the coalition is planning to use its "boys on bikes" telegraph system to warn people in advance to expect less from their utilities.

They will travel from area to area warning residents and handing out leaflets in Arabic.

"We must be well organised and ensure people are well informed so we do not have riots again," said Ms Contini.