Analysis: What chance of Cyprus peace?

By Tabitha Morgan BBC, Cyprus

On the face of it, the odds on the 30-year division of Cyprus coming to an end in the next three months seem to be shortening by the day.

The leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities are meeting the UN Secretary General in New York to try to restart talks on the UN's plan to re-unite the island.

The island has been divided for decades

Mr Annan's invitation came with certain conditions.

He wants to see a deal struck by 1 May when Cyprus joins the European Union, so that membership can apply to both communities.

He is therefore insisting that both President Tassos Papadopoulos and Rauf Denktash, president of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, sign up to a tight timetable.

Implicit

Mr Annan is also demanding that before talks recommence both sides agree to put the plan to a referendum on 21 April, whatever stage the negotiations may have reached by then.

UN sources insist that in agreeing to meet the secretary general in New York the leaders have implicitly accepted his terms - albeit with reluctance on both sides.

This latest push for a solution has been given impetus by the formation of a new coalition government in Northern Cyprus after elections last December.

There is one other critical factor: if they miss this chance there may never be another one

The pro-European Prime Minister, Mehmet Ali Talat, was elected on the strength of his promises to re-unite the island and allow Turkish Cypriots a share in the prosperity that EU membership would bring.

Mr Talat and his supporters will also be encouraged by recent remarks by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the UN should "fill in the blanks" on those issues where the two sides cannot agree.

Turkey desperately needs to sort out the lingering Cyprus problem in order to smooth the way for the start of accession talks on its own EU candidacy.

Co-existence

If the Republic of Cyprus goes ahead as scheduled and joins the union while the island remains divided, Turkey will find itself in an awkward position.

It will continue to have 30,000 troops occupying Cypriot territory, with Cyprus acquiring the power to veto the Turkish application - not a situation any potential candidate country would relish.

The two Cypriot leaders are both unhappy with aspects of the plan

The New York meeting is also the first such encounter since crossing restrictions between the two sides of the island were eased last March.

Hundreds of thousands of Cypriots have since travelled across the island's militarised buffer zone that kept them both apart, proving wrong those politicians who claimed the two sides could never again co-exist peacefully.

So what is to stop a solution on Cyprus being pieced together at last after more than 30 years?

One answer is Rauf Denktash.

The obdurate Turkish Cypriot leader, who recently celebrated his 80th birthday, has spent his entire political life defending Turkish Cypriots against what he sees as the encroachments of the Greek Cypriot majority.

He is adamant that the Annan plan does not grant Turkish Cypriots political equality, and claims his minority community will soon be outnumbered by Greek Cypriots moving to the north of the island.

Tough line

There are other potential problems.

Many Greek Cypriots - not the least refugees from the north - are unhappy with the terms of the Annan plan and would be likely to vote against it in any referendum.

Mr Papadopoulos himself is no fan of the UN proposals - he was voted into office on the promise that he would take a tougher line in negotiations.

But the pressure for the latest peace efforts to succeed is enormous.

The United States and the EU have put their considerable political weight behind it.

Turkey and Greece, for different reasons, also need the plan to work.

And there is one other critical factor: if they miss this chance there may never be another one.

But it would a rash gambler who would put his money either way for the time being.