Analysis: Bombs test the ceasefire

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online World Affairs correspondent

The two latest suicide bombs will test the current ceasefire but will probably not end it.

Hamas has, on its website, said that it was responsible for one of the attacks, at the large Israeli settlement of Ariel on the West Bank.

Israelis say only disarming militants will end attacks

This was the first time it had openly broken its ceasefire but, perhaps significantly, it linked the attack to a raid by Israelis in Nablus last Friday in which two members of Hamas were killed.

The al-Aqsa Brigades, part of the Fatah movement, are reported to have claimed responsibility for the explosion at Rosh Haayin in Israel, also linking this to the Nablus and other Israeli raids.

The bombings therefore might be a retaliation rather than a signal that the ceasefire is over.

What they will certainly do is to increase the pressure Israel is putting on the Palestinian Authority to crack down on Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades.

Dore Gold, an adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said: "There is no substitute for the complete disarming of Palestinian terrorist groups by the Palestinian Authority as required by the road map. No hudna (ceasefire), no diplomacy - just complete dismantling."

The attacks also expose a loophole in the roadmap which could lead to a complete breakdown without careful handling.

The map does not stop Israelis from carrying out arrest operations in the West Bank and Gaza.

The Israelis say these are necessary because the Palestinian Authority is not doing enough. But raids lead to Palestinian anger and potential retaliation.

The Palestinian Minister of State for Security Mohammed Dahlan blamed Israeli raids for provoking the bombings while condemning the bomb attacks themselves.

There is no substitute for the complete disarming of Palestinian terrorist groups by the Palestinian Authority Dore Gold Israeli spokesman

"We are against any operations of this kind but it must be clear that it is Israel which should be more responsible and stop its operations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. You must know that such operations generate violence and spur reactions from the Palestinian side."

The raid in Nablus last Friday killed four Palestinians, two of them said by Israel to be leading Hamas bomb makers.

Window open - just

There is still a window in which peace can be salvaged.

The ceasefires by Hamas and Islamic Jihad are due to expire at the end of September. They could of course be extended.

It must be clear that it is Israel which should be more responsible and stop its operations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip Mohammed Dahlan Palestinian Security Minister

Israel is also due to assess in September the extent to which the Palestinian Authority has disarmed the militant groups and these attacks will be put into the reckoning. So there is still some time.

There is a clear difference between the Israeli insistence that the requirements of the roadmap on security be carried out and the Palestinian approach which is to foster a long term and then a permanent ceasefire.

Roadmap obligations

The map says that in the current Phase One: "Rebuilt and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins sustained, targeted and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure."

This is not being done, according to the Israelis. They are afraid that Hamas and the others are simply using the ceasefires to draw breath and re-arm.

The Hamas ceasefire officially ends at the end of September

The Palestinians on the other hand argue that it cannot be done while Israel continues its arrest operations, remains in occupation of large parts of the West Bank and refuses to release more prisoners.

At this stage, outside diplomacy and pressure is probably needed to provide some calm. The special US envoy William Burns is currently in Israel for talks with both sides.

The Americans are hoping that this difficult early period can be got through and then there can be moves towards Phase Two, which is far more political, leading, it is hoped, to the formation of a Palestinian state with provisional borders by the end of this year.

But that point on the roadmap is still a long way off.