Will Arafat be expelled?

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

Two big decisions will face the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, when he returns early from his visit to India.

Will he agree to the increasing demands from within his own cabinet for the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and will Israel invade Gaza to hunt for the Hamas leaders against whom it has declared war?

There is another alternative - to bring him to a situation in which he will be in his headquarters as a prisoner in solitary confinement Ehud Olmert Israeli Vice Premier

The word from Mr Sharon's officials in India is that Mr Arafat will be kept "on a short leash", but that he will not be expelled immediately.

Another option is under examination - putting him into "solitary confinement."

This would involve the Israelis ringing his already confined headquarters in the West Bank town of Ramallah, perhaps limiting or even cutting off his visitors and barring his phone calls in some way.

It is an option favoured by the Vice Premier Ehud Olmert - the former Mayor of Jerusalem and a long time Likud party loyalist.

"The choice we face isn't between expelling him or leaving the existing situation," he told Israel Radio. "There is another alternative - to bring him to a situation in which he will be in his headquarters as a prisoner in solitary confinement, isolated from his surroundings."

The arguments for expulsion have been led by the Defence Minister, Shaul Mofaz, who said recently that it had been a mistake for Israel not to have taken this move months ago. General Mofaz is going to Washington soon, hoping to persuade the Bush administration to change its policy of opposing any such decision.

Restraining factor

American opposition has been a key factor in restraining Mr Sharon. The Israeli prime minister has a valuable relationship with President Bush and until the US signals otherwise, is unlikely to agree to the expulsion demands.

Arafat could be subject of Israeli action

The American position has not changed publicly. Mr Bush's national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said that "no good would be served" by Yasser Arafat's expulsion.

Privately, the Israelis hope that the American view has shifted to at least being ready to think of "when", not "if."

Expelling the veteran leader would produce huge diplomatic problems for Israel. After all, he is the elected Palestinian leader.

He could be expected to roam the world giving speeches and causing problems for Israel. And where would he be sent? How would he be captured? Israeli troops would have to physically go into his office. The risk to his person would be considerable.

Curbing Mr Arafat is just one part of a two-pronged Israeli approach.

They blame him for undermining Mahmoud Abbas who resigned as Palestinian prime minister. They want to destroy Mr Arafat's influence in order to pave the way for more moderate Palestinians to lead peace talks. That at least is the hope.

Ground attack?

The reality is that the other half of the strategy, the war against Hamas, will probably take priority. The Israeli Government believes that it must crush Hamas before any political progress can be made and that it must be crushed in any case to improve security for Israelis.

In all this, the roadmap lies unused.

One must take seriously the Israeli "declaration of war" against Hamas. Twice in recent days it has launched missile attacks against Hamas leaders in Gaza. Twice it has failed to kill them.

The prospect of a ground attack therefore must be real.

And in the meantime, the construction of the fence or barrier around the West Bank (and in places into it) will continue. It is constantly pointed out by Israelis that there have been no suicide bomb attacks launched from Gaza because Gaza is already surrounded with a fence.

In all this, the roadmap lies unused.