Analysis: Farewell to the roadmap?

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The nomination of Ahmed Qurei as Palestinian prime minister brings in one moderate to replace another - but puts Yasser Arafat in a much stronger position and leaves the roadmap to peace lying unused on the table.

Abbas (left) may be replaced by one of Arafat's most loyal allies

The fact is that there is no ceasefire by Hamas and Israel has declared all out war against it.

The Palestinian Authority has not acted against "terrorist infrastructure and capabilities" as the map requires and Israel has not withdrawn from much of the West Bank.

There is no atmosphere of peacemaking between peoples who are supposed to be partners but who act like enemies.

Ahmed Qurei was one of the architects of the Oslo agreement, which was marked with a handshake on the White House lawn between Mr Arafat and the then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin 10 years ago this week.

But he is a closer ally of Mr Arafat than was Mahmoud Abbas and it remains an open question as to how much influence he will be able to exert.

Wait and see approach

The Israelis, having made hostile noises initially, now seem to be adopting a wait and see approach. So does the United States.

"We're looking to see if he has the commitment, the authority and the resources to move forward on the road map," said Richard Boucher, the State Department spokesman.

"Resources" in this context means control over the Palestinian security forces, the issue over which Mr Abbas resigned.

We're looking to see if he has the commitment, the authority and the resources to move forward on the road map Richard Boucher State Department

Neither Israel nor the US will deal directly with Mr Arafat but the masterly and mercurial Palestinian leader has shown yet again that he is not to be counted out.

The road map was drawn up on the assumption that Mr Arafat would be by-passed. It proved to be an unworkable assumption.

The Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon must be reminded of 1982 when, as defence minister, he took Israeli troops to the gates of Beirut to throw Mr Arafat and his forces out of Lebanon. They left but Mr Arafat was not destroyed.

If his influence becomes very obvious, there is a risk that, in the aftermath of another major terrorist incident, the Israelis will decide to expel him and the United States will stand aside.

Politics will probably now hang fire for a bit while the personalities sort themselves out. But the war will not hang fire.

And the barrier which Israel is constructing will continue to thread its way along the old green line marking the 1967 borders and in places intruding into the West Bank itself.

More of the same in prospect

There is every prospect of a stalemate in the politics, and a continuation of the fighting in some form.

The optimists might hope that a re-unified Palestinian leadership will be able to suppress the militant groups or at least get a renewed ceasefire.

Israel, however, says that a ceasefire is not enough.

The quartet which drew up the road map (the US, the UN, the EU and Russia) are expected to meet soon to plan their next moves.

At this stage, a decision should be imminent on taking the process forward towards the declaration by the end of the year of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.

Such a decision appears unlikely at the moment.