Roadmap 'breathtakingly ambitious'

By Jon Leyne BBC state department correspondent

Impossibly optimistic? Mr Bush's plan raised eyebrows

Criticised so long for avoiding the Middle East peace process, President George W Bush launched an initiative that is almost breathtakingly ambitious.

The Middle East roadmap aims to solve half a century of conflict in just over two years.

Unlike former President Bill Clinton's peacemaking efforts, this initiative starts with the bitter legacy of two years of intifada.

The Palestinian security infrastructure is in ruins. Israeli security forces operate almost at will. A hardliner, Ariel Sharon, leads the Israeli side.

The Palestinians have a new prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas - also known as Abu Mazen - who faces a prolonged battle for power with his president, Yasser Arafat.

Equally as challenging is the political scene in the United States.

Eye on election

Already the presidential election of 2004 is looming on the horizon.

Mr Abbas is fighting for authority

President Bush is eager to win more than the roughly 10% share he secured of the Jewish vote in the 2000 election - for one thing, they make up a crucial voting bloc in Florida.

The fervently pro-Israel lobby of the Christian Right is almost as important for him - as they are the core of his support, he has always been loath to alienate them.

Then there is lesson number one in George W's political guide book: Don't repeat daddy's mistakes.

By pressing so hard for peace in 1991 and 1992, President Bush the elder helped open the door for Bill Clinton's victory.

George senior was even involved in a messy confrontation with Ariel Sharon, no less.

Discontent

Already the rumbling in the United States has started.

The former House speaker, Newt Gingrich, described the current Middle East peacemaking as a disaster.

The roadmap has not deterred violence so far

A majority of members of Congress have signed a letter of support for the Israeli Government.

And further, it is hard to see any deal Mr Sharon might offer that could possibly be acceptable to the Palestinians.

Just list the issues: Jerusalem, settlements, the right of return...

It is even harder to see Mr Bush pushing him in that direction.

Against this, the optimists in Washington have engaged in a constructive suspension of disbelief.

It's not that they believe this initiative is going to work, it is that they just hope something positive emerges. And for once the Israeli and American leaders appear, at least, to be playing the game.

Work for peace

President Bush has promised to work as hard for peace in the Middle East as Tony Blair has in Northern Ireland. He has the credibility now to reassure the Right that what he is doing is for the best.

Mr Sharon has spoken of painful concessions

Perhaps he can use that personal prestige to reassure the Israeli Government and people as well.

Mr Sharon sought out the left-wing newspaper Ha'aretz recently and told them: "We will be ready to carry out very painful steps."

Those could include pulling back from at least some of the settlements.

While Mr Sharon's political position is unchallenged, Israelis are weary of the conflict, and the economy is in a mess.

Idealist

Like his father (author of the "new world order") George W Bush has an idealistic streak.

"This war is all about peace," he said in the middle of the Iraq conflict, and he seems to believe the contradiction.

So for the moment the pessimists are trying to hold their tongues.

No-one is really prepared to suggest that a Palestinian state could indeed emerge in 2005, as the roadmap proposes. But maybe the process will start moving forwards, or at least stay in neutral for a while, rather than the current disastrous negativity.

Maybe the roadmap does indeed lead somewhere. It's just that nobody knows quite where.