Analysis: Challenge of the suicide bombers

By Tarik Kafala
BBC News Online

With a new Palestinian leadership in place and another peace initiative in the wings, can the suicide bombers of Hamas and Islamic Jihad be stopped?

Mahmoud Abbas: Committed to disarming the militants

On 29 April, Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, was sworn in as Palestinian prime minister. This was a key condition for the resumption of the Middle East peace process.

This is potentially a moment of real change and great opportunity. Mr Abbas, more than any other senior Palestinian official, committed himself to opposing terrorism and disarming Palestinian terrorist organisations.

The same day, a suicide attacker killed three and injured 50 at bar in Tel Aviv. This added to a long pattern of Palestinian militants who oppose peace with Israel doing their utmost to throttle at birth any possibility of a peace initiative.

Israeli officials also acted somewhat predictably. An official said the suicide attack represented a "complete failure" in security for the new administration.

'Resisting occupation'

Henry Siegman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, says the chance of any peace process taking off depends on how Palestinians and Israelis respond to the challenge posed by the suicide attackers.

Fratricidal war within the Palestinian community probably cannot be avoided... for the greater good of ultimately realising the Palestinian national goal

Henry Siegman
Council on Foreign Relations

"Will the attack serve to mobilise the resources that Israel has available, and the Palestinians must muster, to fight this terror, or will it be used as an excuse to continue to avoid a political process?" Mr Siegman asks.

The militants have been quite clear about their stance.

"Of course we will not disarm," top Hamas official Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi has said.

"We are resisting an occupation that still exists. The day we get rid of the occupation we can talk about arms."

Palestinians fighting Palestinians

What is being asked of Mr Abbas, and what he has committed himself to, appears to be the use of force to disarm Palestinian militants - in effect a kind of Palestinian civil war.

ROADMAP: WHAT WE KNOW

Phase 1: End of terrorism, normalisation of Palestinian life and Palestinian political reform; Israeli withdrawal and end of settlement activity

Phase 2: Creation of an independent Palestinian state; Palestinian elections and international monitoring of compliance with roadmap

Phase 3: Permanent status agreement and end of conflict; agreement on final borders, Jerusalem, refugees and settlements; Arab states to agree to peace deals with Israel

More detail on the 'roadmap'

Henry Siegman sees no way to avoid this.

"This kind of fratricidal war within the Palestinian community probably cannot be avoided. The success in the war on terror will depend on the willingness of the new Palestinian administration to engage even in this kind of war for the greater good of ultimately realising the Palestinian national goal."

There is a precedent for this.

In 1996, after a wave of suicide bombings in Israel, the Palestinian Preventative Security Forces went head-to-head with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Militant leaders were arrested and there were clashes in the streets.

Mohammed Dahlan led that clampdown, and is now the new Palestinian minister of state for internal security affairs.

No Palestinian unity

However deep Mr Abbas' commitment to reining in the militants, it is not clear that he has wider political backing, the support of Palestinians in general, or even the means to do this.

There is no longer a real command and control structure that would allow Mr Abbas and a reformed security service to disarm Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The targeted assassinations, the roadblocks, the closures and so on... all of these have to be addressed and alleviated by the Israeli side to make it possible for Mr Abbas to claim that by ending terror the Palestinian situation will improve

Henry Siegman

Much of this was destroyed in the long series of Israeli attacks on the infrastructure of the Palestinian Authority which was at its most intense in early 2002.

Palestinian officials often point out that a massive Israeli re-occupation of their territory and the surrounding of their cities has not stopped the suicide bombers.

The Palestinian Authority also appears no match for the highly organised and well-armed Islamic groups.

Within Fatah, the political faction to which Mr Abbas and Yasser Arafat belong, there is no unanimity on how to deal with Israel. Mr Abbas' approach is far from popular.

Neither Mr Abbas nor Mr Arafat are believed to have real control over the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade or the Tanzim - two groups that are made up of people that are also Fatah members.

Winning over Palestinians

There remains the question of ordinary Palestinians and what they want.

Among vast numbers of Palestinians, Hamas is very popular for carrying on the resistance to Israel and for its community work in schools and hospitals.

The Palestinian Authority, by comparison, is seen as failed and corrupt.

According to a recent poll carried out by the Palestinian Centre for Policy, 71% support a "mutual cessation of violence". But in the absence of such an end to violence, 57% backed continued attacks on Israeli civilians.

Henry Siegman argues that Israel has a key role in winning over Palestinians to Mr Abbas' cause.

"Without the co-operation and assistance of the Israeli side, this is a mission impossible for Mahmoud Abbas.

"The targeted assassinations, the roadblocks, the closures and so on... all of these have to be addressed and alleviated by the Israeli side to make it possible for Mr Abbas to claim that by ending terror the Palestinian situation will not only improve but that this will open the possibility of serious talks on a Palestinian state."